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  • we are coming up here.

  • Well, it's 5 30 Exactly right now.

  • Split down the middle if you're just joining us out there.

  • Lets a lot of people are stuck at home with the working hard all day.

  • They're not just sitting there watching the markets all day like we are.

  • So let's go now to Bob Basanti.

  • Talk about the date it was.

  • And Bob, you've been down at the N.

  • Y.

  • C.

  • Now for how long you're not trying to date yourself.

  • But how long could be down there for us.

  • 23 years.

  • I've been the floor reporter at the New York Stock Exchange and that you don't see a days like this very often.

  • Brian.

  • Thank heavens it was a double whammy.

  • That's the problem.

  • The inability to figure out the economic impact of Corona virus on corporate earnings.

  • Well, that's bad enough we had to deal with that.

  • Then you throw in a sudden price war between the Russians and the Saudis on oil, and you have the makings of a very ugly day in a particularly ugly open.

  • That's what I concentrate on here within three minutes of the market open at 9 33 a.

  • M.

  • Eastern time, the stocks were halted.

  • What system wide do the circuit breakers that kicked in when the S and P dropped 7%?

  • That triggered a 15 minute trading hold.

  • This was the first time that the modern circuit breakers had kicked in and its did its job.

  • Basically, it job was to pause the market and create liquidity.

  • Stocks then rose when the market reopens 15 minutes later.

  • But the damage was done.

  • We ended right near the lows for the day.

  • Energy stocks in particular were clobbered.

  • Exxon down 12%.

  • That's the lowest close since 2004 for Exxon.

  • If there is a poster child for the woes for energy.

  • Halliburton three trading halts one for the S and P, 509 33 then two Individual trading halts at 10 a.m. And 10 22.

  • You see Halliburton closing down about 37%.

  • Other economically sensitive groups also got hit hard, particularly banks and industrial J P Morgan, down 13% or so.

  • That was the worst decline since the financial crisis in March 2009.

  • On a single day, industrials like Boeing, Caterpillar, United Technologies, all down 9 to 13%.

  • This wasn't though a complete bloodbath.

  • We finally saw some differentiation in the marketplace.

  • Some stuff held up a little bit better than others.

  • Generally, they were consumer names and not just Wal Mart.

  • Warmer was the only stock that was up for most of the day.

  • Not at the clothes but most of the day.

  • Defensive names.

  • Pfizer UnitedHealth down but outperformed the broader market.

  • Same with Procter and Gamble.

  • Same with Johnson and Johnson.

  • Same with Pfizer all down 3 to 4% horrible days but far outperformed the broader market, down 7.6%.

  • Only good news here today is the circuit breaker did serve to sort of halt the horrible sentiment of the Open and the reopening.

  • Things were a lot calmer, and the vics, in fact, did drop after we reopened, although still very, very elevated.

  • Brian Beck to you know, Bob, we are glad that you are down there.

  • 23 years of historical knowledge and wisdom and dealing with this never flustered Bob Basanti.

  • I want Tim What?

  • You lived in Russia.

  • I wanna ask you a question about OPEC, because if oil helped drive us down.

  • Okay, here's the thinking.

  • And I wrote about it this weekend.

  • By the way, I think it's still upon cbc dot com.

  • The Russians ostensibly wanted to punch us shale in the face because Trump put sanctions on Rosneft.

  • Rosneft is the big Russian oil company is run by Igor Sechin, who is Putin's former employees and ostensibly best friend.

  • Well, Trump didn't put sanctions on Russia.

  • I mean, those were legacy sanctions, but, uh, Nord's treatments put this.

  • If the toucan talk, you think there's any chance that there's anything we can do back channel to get Russia back to the table with the Saudis and get the OPEC deal done, which might stabilize oil and thus the mark?

  • Yes, But ultimately you have to ask, what what is Russia's negotiating tactic and what are they trying to achieve?

  • And you know, my view, having spent a lot of time in Russia is first of all, I could just tell you that the oil and gas industry gets more profitable as the ruble devalues and we get in crisis moments because actually that the oil prices air have higher levels of taxation at higher levels of oil.

  • But More importantly, they are a local ruble based costs which actually get cheaper when the ruble, the values and their dollar exporters so they're much more profitable in this kind of an environment.

  • So Russia doesn't mind this environment.

  • They also have a budget which fiscally breaks even at $43 a barrel.

  • Saudis at 85 barrels.

  • So who's got more pain on the budget side and saw?

  • It has been very clear about their move away from well and their 2030 and the chaos in Saudi Arabia right now that we're also hearing anecdotally, I think it's something that Putin is seizing.

  • This helps Putin's negotiating in the Middle East.

  • Putin's got a game plan.

  • He's got a game plan of helping Venezuela, other wounded OPEC players.

  • This is part of the whole tactic and I don't think Putin needs to rush to the table here.

  • Frankly, that's just a view and therefore it's a view I have that this volatility doesn't serve anybody but U.

  • S Shale is free, cash flow positive above 50 and Putin knows that.

  • What's interesting is I thought we wanted lower oil prices.

  • I thought we wanted lower rates.

  • I thought we wanted a lower dollar.

  • Now you're getting everything you want and look what's happening to the market.

  • Sort of be careful what you wish for things.

  • So I'm sort of with Tim on this thing.

  • I don't see any compelling reason for anybody to go to the table.

  • It is Worf, it's it's economic warfare, and it pains me to say it brightened.

  • Right now, we appear to be losing 42.

  • Used to be long term support is what I've been saying for a couple of weeks.

  • Last month's here.

  • I never expected it to break down this precipitously, but once you break down, you get below $30.

  • Then you're in a world of hurt.

  • You look at that 26 55 level, so I don't I do still think that people, for the most part, want lower oil.

  • They don't want it for this reason, but ultimately ah, bunch of companies going to go out of business.

  • It's gonna be survival of the fittest.

  • If anyone's left and then we'll recoup regrow.

  • But until that, I think you're going to see lower for longer and you heard Mike Bradley said 15 to 20% equities could be gone away.

  • By the way, many of them are down 99%.

  • I mean, literally.

  • That's a number, All right, The market crashing through several key technical levels in today's brutal selloff.

  • Is there any support anywhere out there?

  • Cornerstone Macros Carter worth over at the plasma?

  • Any support, Any work?

  • Carter Rubbing his hands together?

  • Just pick, pick your levels.

  • But let's, uh, let's first talk about the concept of a bear market.

  • Now headlines always focus on the 20% and really, no one knows where that came from.

  • But let's let's use that if the Russell three thousands the broadest investment Agra, we have covering essentially entire investable universe, which is obviously has to be 500 plus the next 2500 stocks, this is the numbers 2467 83% are already down 20.

  • So is that a bear?

  • Or how about down 25?

  • 72% of the constituents are down 25 or our let's go further.

  • How about 30 60% of the constituents in the largest Agra we have are already down 30.

  • It's a bear market and call it what you want.

  • We know what it is, and it's presumptively not over.

  • Where can it go?

  • It's anybody's guess.

  • But let's look at some lines.

  • So, um actually, same same deck here for the S and P.

  • And this is the point, right?

  • 20%.

  • I mean, 66% more than half are down 25.

  • So we have a few big marquee names.

  • They're holding up as if.

  • And as they succumb, we know what happens.

  • So in terms of levels, here is the long term chart.

  • This is the financial crisis low the sixth of March 2009.

  • This is U.

  • S debt downgrade into that 11 right here.

  • The 2016 industrial Learning session right here.

  • The plunge low of December.

  • And so were we just simply to come down to trend, which is 2500.

  • That's another 7%.

  • Perfectly reasonable.

  • But the real question is, could we get to the December lows?

  • I mean, could we give back this entire ricochet of the past year?

  • We know the S and P is not it, but the transports have already taken out the low.

  • The bank index already taken out the low the Russell 2000.

  • The energy.

  • So let's look at each of those.

  • And then let's quit.

  • The S and P were to get down to its ricochet.

  • Low of Christmas of 2018 would be another 15%.

  • The Russell 2000 on the other hand, would be a mere four.

  • Just for that could happen tomorrow at 9 32 What happened next week?

  • But the point is, that's a foregone conclusion.

  • And then here's the real issue.

  • Look at some of these other aggregates what we have to transport.

  • The transports have already taken out their Christmas low, and the key here is the never could make a high, never confirming what the S and P was doing.

  • And finally take a look at the bank index, never confirming the S and P's new high, and it's taken out below.

  • None of this is good.

  • And sure, you can get bounce along the way.

  • But bear market got a lot of problems and let the dust settle before getting really excited about buying.

  • We'll see if the dust does settle.

  • Come on over.

  • I mean, Karen, I mean, look at Carter's charter.

  • I think I did the math a little bit.

  • Look it up.

  • Maybe we could have another 7 to 9% down on the S and P 500 to hit that 2500 super law.

  • Nice elbow.

  • You're on the radio and practice your super long term support in line, right?

  • Think about those were pretty important reference once Theo nine low the U.

  • S debt down in 2011.

  • The 2016 low in the 2018.

  • Were we just to simply touch that that 7%.

  • But from there, it's anybody's guess.

  • The real issue is the market, which made a new high, was never confirmed by most global iris by the banks, the transports.

  • And it calls into question whether we do really test the December.

  • So you had talked about the Russell is being only 4% off of that unbelievable plunge low.

  • Which point it was itself was down 30%.

  • So does that make it more attractive to you relative to the other?

  • One's a relative basis of all of you to an absolute That's one way to look at, one could say, since it's so much worse.

  • Therefore it has more bounce several, but I think it's because it's got so many things they're playing.

  • First of all, it's waiting.

  • And financials, as you know, is almost double that of the S and P.

  • And small regional banks, with rates and so forth are in real trouble.

  • My hunch is that it's just it's a preview of coming attractions for the bigger indices and coming attractions.

  • They're not things we tend to like the coming attraction of a bad movie.

  • I mean, the bottom line is you, Seymour Downside likely ahead.

  • I think that's that's the message that I would convey.

  • But I think it's also It's also this Let's say it's not about the downside.

  • Switch the subject.

  • Let's say we never go are It's always downside investing.

  • We know that this is not, you know, tiddlywinks.

  • It's about the upside.

  • The upside is capped.

  • If you look at the statistics on how long it takes to recover from a 20% decline, the median takes about two years.

  • That's right, that's a problem, and maybe where you're getting, too.

  • But let's cut right also to literally the shape of these charts.

  • Investors are become so inured to expect a V shaped recovery Onda we talked about in the context of economies and is the Is it going to be a V shaped recovery from the Corona virus?

  • Who knows?

  • But but the charts themselves, that's a big ask.

  • And since we have the V off of the December, well, that's That's the right.

  • And usually you don't mean it.

  • It's tricky to pull off a V.

  • They're rare.

  • Use our common.

  • You, you heal, you cure.

  • Ricochets are impetuous, impulsive, and they're rare.

  • All right, Carter Worth carded.

  • Good stuff there on those charts.

  • I mean, really long term.

  • That Russell chart was incredibly dramatic.

  • Carter, thank you very much.

we are coming up here.

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B1 中級 新型コロナウイルス 新型肺炎 COVID-19

市場は、コロナウイルスの懸念で売却を続けている (Markets continue to sell off on coronavirus fears)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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