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  • COURT.

  • LOU: AS WE ARE USED TO.

  • THE YIELD CURVE INVERTED AGAIN,

  • BUT INVESTORS NOT EXCITED AT

  • ALL.

  • THE DOW UP 258 POINTS.

  • THE NASDAQ UP 30.

  • TWO WEEKS AGO, MUCH IF NOT MOST

  • OF OF THE LEFTIST MEDIA AND

  • BUSINESS PRESS PANICKING OVER

  • THE INVERSION OF THE YIELD CURVE

  • AND USE IT TO FUEL THEIR

  • NARRATIVE OF AN IMPENDING

  • RECESSION.

  • OFTEN FORGETTING TO KNOW IT

  • USUALLY TAKES TWO YEARS BEFORE A

  • RECESSION SETS IN AFTER AN

  • INVERSION.

  • JOINING US TONIGHT PETER

  • NAVARRO, STARNT TO THE

  • PRESIDENT, DIRECTOR OF TRADE AND

  • TRAIL POLICY, DIRECTOR OF THE

  • WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL TRADE

  • COUNCIL.

  • LET'S START WITH THE YIELD CURVE

  • INVERTED AGAIN.

  • TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN TWO

  • WEEKS AGO.

  • AND INVESTORS DISMISSING IT.

  • I READ THAT AS A PRESIDENT WHO

  • HAS GREATER CREDIBILITY THAN THE

  • BUSINESS PRESS.

  • THEIR HAIR WAS ON FIRE TWO

  • WE KNOW WE HAVE THE JAY POWELL

  • PROBLEM WHERE THEY ARE NOT

  • LOWERING RATES FAST ENOUGH.

  • LET ME GIVE YOU MY 60 SECONDS.

  • >> CAN YOU MAKE IT 30, WE ARE

  • ALREADY A MINUTE AND.

  • >> TRUMP FOR PILLARS, TAX-CUT

  • DEREGULATION, TOUGH TRADE

  • REFORM.

  • THE WAY WE GET THIS, FROM 2% TO

  • 3% GROWTH, FED CREDITS RATES,

  • EUROPEAN CENTRAL KIT CUT RATES.

  • AND WE GET CHINA ENGAGING IN THE

  • STIMULUS.

  • IT IS ALL GOOD.

  • THAT IS THE KEY AND FINALLY ALL

  • THE ACING ON THE CAKE.

  • >> USMC I, THAT SOUND A LOT LIKE

  • A TRADE AGREEMENT WITH MEXICO

  • AND CANADA.

  • >> WHAT IS INTERESTING, I KNOW

  • YOU'RE ON A ROLL AND A HATE TO

  • INTERRUPT, BUT WE NEED TO

  • UNDERSTAND THE UNDERLYING

  • MOTIVATION TODAY AT LEAST

  • REPORTED BY THE BUSINESS PRESS.

  • THAT IS OPTIMISM ABOUT THE CHINA

  • U.S. TRADE AGREEMENT, IS IT

  • MISPLACED, THE OPTIMISM, OR IS

  • IT WELL-PLACED.

  • >> I THINK WHAT THE MARKET WAS

  • RESPONDING TO WAS THE REALITY OF

  • ALL THE GOOD THINGS HAPPENING IN

  • TERMS --

  • >> LET ME TRY THIS AGAIN, I KNOW

  • YOU WOULD LOVE TO FOLLOW --

  • >> I WOULD SAY IS OPTIMISM I'M

  • NOT SURE WHETHER IT'S MISPLACED,

  • YOU KNOW ALL NEGOTIATIONS TAKE

  • PLACE BEHIND CLOSED DOORS --

  • >> WE WON'T BUY THAT.

  • SO WHAT IS YOUR PRECISE

  • QUESTION?

  • >> IS SUCH OPTIMISM MISPLACED OR

  • WELL-PLACED CUSTOMER

  • WELL-PLACED?CUSTOMER

  • >> WE HAVE SERIOUS STRUCTURAL

  • PROBLEMS BUT THE CHINESE ARE

  • COMING HERE IN SEPTEMBER TO TALK

  • ABOUT THEM.

  • LET'S SEE IF WE CAN WORK THROUGH

  • THAT.

  • I TELL YOU IS UNLIKELY THAT

  • ANYTHING QUICK WILL HAPPEN GIVEN

  • THE STRUCTURAL BASIS OF THE

  • PROBLEM.

  • YOU KNOW WHAT THEY ARE, STEALING

  • OUR STUFF AND KILLING AMERICANS

  • WITH FENTANYL AND EVERY THING IN

  • BETWEEN.

  • BUT FOR ME, LOOKING AT THE

  • ECONOMY.

  • LIZ: THERE NOT A NICE BUNCH ARE

  • THEY?

  • >> I THINK THEY HAVE A

  • REPUTATION GOING BACK TO 1949

  • AND NEVER FOR FILLING ANY OF THE

  • COMMITMENTS AND THEN GOING BACK

  • TO 2001 AND BREAKING EVERY RULE

  • IN THE WTO BOOK AND TAKE OVER

  • 70000 FACTORIES AND 5 MILLION

  • MAIN FACTORY JOBS.

  • YOU THINK AMERICA HAS FINALLY

  • REALIZED THAT'S EXACTLY WHO

  • CHINA IS IN SUPPORTING PRESIDENT

  • TRUMP AND TAKING ACTION.

  • LOU: I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY

  • DOUBT ABOUT THAT SUPPORT AND IT

  • IS UNDERSTATED POWER IN THE

  • LEFT-WING 80

  • LEFT-WING M0

  • LEFT-WING MEDIA.

  • I DON'T HEAR A LOT OF BLUBBER

  • FROM WALL STREET ANYMORE OR THE

  • CHAMBER OF HORRORS OR COMMERCE

  • OR THE BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE ABOUT

  • FREE TRADE.

  • THE PRESIDENT SEEMS TO HAVE MADE

  • IT VERY CLEAR THAT THERE HAS

  • BEEN NOTHING FREE ABOUT FREE

  • TRADE FOR THE LAST FOUR DECADES

  • IN THE BALANCE TRADE IS THE

  • FUTURE AND AS A LEADER OF THE

  • FREE WORLD, HE IS PERSUADING IN

  • THE REST OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION

  • CERTAINLY THAT THIS IS A NEW

  • DAWN.

  • WHAT DO YOU THINK?

  • >> ITS RECIPROCAL TRADE AND

  • EUROPE IS GETTING ON BOARD AND I

  • THINK EUROPE VIEWS CHINA JUST AS

  • WE DO, AS A COUNTRY THAT IS

  • VIOLATING ALL THE ROLES AND

  • THREATENING THE INTERNATIONAL

  • ABILITY TO HAVE A DECENT TRADING

  • SYSTEM.

  • SO LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

  • IN THE MEANTIME, IN THE NEXT

  • MONTH OR TWO, WE NEED THE FED TO

  • DO ITS JOB, TO CUT RATES,

  • EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WILL HELP

  • US AS WELL.

  • LOU: LET ME MAKE A FORECAST,

  • THAT IS THE FED WILL CUT RATES,

  • JEROME POWELL HAS HAD -- HE IS

  • BEEN TUTORED, HE IS MORE

  • EXPERIENCED BY EVENTS.

  • THERE IS NO WAY IN THE WORLD HE

  • WOULD NOT CUT RATES.

  • AND I WILL BET YOU ANY AMOUNT OF

  • MONEY ON THAT ONE.

  • >> LET'S MAKE SURE HE IS PLAYING

  • CHESS NOT CHECKERS.

  • LOU: I CANNOT MAKE SURE OF

  • ANYTHING AND IF YOU'RE NOT GONNA

  • TAKE MY BET I GOT A GO.

  • >> WILL BE PUT MONEY DOWN ON IT.

COURT.

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Peter Navarro: Yield curve is inverting due to bullish circumstances

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    林宜悉   に公開 2019 年 09 月 27 日
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