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  • 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,060 Why label China a currency manipulator now?

  • Well, it is something that administrations

  • have considered in the United States for close to 20 years.

  • It is something that the Trump administration has been talking

  • about since the very beginning of the administration,

  • but it kind of fell off the radar.

  • Donald Trump made it very clear that it was something

  • he wanted to do, and then was talked out of it internally,

  • and it wasn't really a part of the early trade discussions

  • within the administration.

  • But now a lot of the people who resisted have left

  • and it looks like other people who have resisted

  • - people like Steve Mnuchin at Treasury

  • and Robert Lighthizer at the US Trade Representative's Office

  • - have given in to this demand.

  • So, why now?

  • The problem for the United States Treasury

  • and for the White House is there aren't

  • a lot of really good options to do anything

  • about the value of the yuan versus the dollar,

  • and here's the reason why.

  • The dollar is overvalued against a bunch

  • of different currencies.

  • The dollar is overvalued in general.

  • The United States is about 25 per cent of global trade,

  • but the dollar itself is used, it says, for about 60

  • per cent of central bank reserves.

  • It's a comparable percentage.

  • We think about 50 per cent to 60 pe cent

  • of the denominations of international trade contracts.

  • The dollar is used far beyond its value of buying things

  • that are made in America.

  • That means that the dollar is going

  • to be artificially high which means if you make things

  • in America and you want dollars for them

  • you're going to have a hard time selling abroad.

  • This is true all over the world.

  • It's not just true in China.

  • And particularly for the last five years or so the Fed,

  • until very recently, was in a hiking cycle.

  • It was making it more attractive to move

  • your capital to the United States and invest.

  • The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan

  • were doing the exact opposite.

  • There we're sort of discouraging the value of assets.

  • They were driving down the value of assets,

  • which again discourages people from buying those currencies.

  • So if you want to do something about the value of the dollar,

  • and it's not just Donald Trump who wants to do this.

  • Elizabeth Warren, running for president,

  • a Democratic senator, has said as an explicit part

  • of her campaign plan that she wants

  • to make sure that the dollar drops

  • in values against other currencies

  • to encourage American manufacturing.

  • So what you have to do is convince the Fed that it's got

  • to drop way below what's indicated it's preparing

  • to drop, and then you have to get a bunch of other central

  • banks - over which you don't even have jawboning control,

  • you don't even have any modicum of political control -

  • to do you a favour basically, and raise rates on their own

  • economy to encourage investment from abroad in their economy.

  • That all feels unlikely.

  • And so right now, all the Trump administration really can do

  • is jawbone.

  • All it can do is say: we think that the dollar

  • should be less value.

  • They can say: we're considering changing

  • the 20-year-old strong dollar policy.

  • Now, they haven't explicitly said

  • they're changing the 20-year-old strong dollar policy the United

  • States, but they're definitely acting

  • like they're reconsidering it.

  • Again, this isn't a unilateral decision.

  • The Democrats were thinking about this as well.

  • Chuck Schumer urged the White House

  • to declare China a currency manipulator.

  • So all this leads us back to the original question.

  • Why declare China a currency manipulator now?

  • Well, the answer is they needed to do something,

  • and right now it's the only thing they can do.

00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,060 Why label China a currency manipulator now?

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アメリカが中国を為替操作者と言った理由 (Why the US labelled China a currency manipulator)

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    洪子雯 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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