Placeholder Image

字幕表 動画を再生する

  • If you're one of the four billion people who flew last year

  • chances are you flew on either an Airbus or Boeing aircraft.

  • The Airbus-Boeing duopoly dominates the already under competitive

  • aircraft manufacturing industry by producing more than 99% of

  • its large airplane orders globally. It's become one of the most

  • efficient duopolies ever in the history of manufacturing

  • Are smaller competitors finally giving them a run for their

  • money? Or are they just getting scooped up? Will China step into

  • the market and make waves? What about the future of flying? Will

  • Supersonic planes challenge Airbus and Boeing's dominance?

  • Before we answer those questions let's start with how we got to

  • a place where just two companies own the air

  • Boeing has always been a big player in the aviation field for

  • over 100 years. The Boeing Company was created in 1916. William

  • Boeing founded the Aero Products Company and developed a single

  • engine seaplane and the business was renamed the Boeing Company

  • and sold its planes to the Navy during the First World War

  • Boeing continued to sell its aircraft during the 1920s and 1930s

  • to the U.S. military. During this time Boeing also expanded into

  • airmail services.

  • In 1919 Eddie Hubbard and I took a

  • flight up to Vancouver B.C. This was the first ever

  • international mail ever carried by planes into the United

  • States.

  • The Boeing Airplane and Transportation Corporation was formed and

  • it covered both the manufacturing and airline operations but the

  • Air Mail Act of 1934 split aircraft manufacturers from air

  • transport. So the conglomerate of the day was dissolved in the

  • company went back to being called "Boeing." With the development

  • of turbo jets, the Boeing 707 was introduced to the public in

  • 1958 on Pan American's trans Atlantic route and the public loved

  • it With smoother rides and a shorter flight time Boeing paved

  • the way for the future of commercial flight. Boeing may

  • encapsulate Americana via the golden age of flying but the much

  • younger Airbus had a rough road to success. It started as a

  • group effort in Europe to take on American manufacturers.

  • In 1967 Germany, France, and Britain came to the agreement that a

  • cooperation of aviation field would promote technology and

  • economic growth in Europe. They drew up plans for a short haul

  • European Airbus that would accommodate the public's desire to

  • fly more for less. Plans were made to construct the A300. In

  • October of 1972 the A300 completed its first flight. But Airbus

  • leaders had an uphill battle ahead of them convincing the world

  • they created the most innovative aircraft. By 1984 Airbus

  • received 411 orders and had 282 aircraft in active service. The

  • persistence paid off the long run because in 2018 Airbus

  • delivered 800 planes. 11% growth from the year before. And

  • Boeing's business is thriving as well. In 2018 the company set

  • the record for the most airplane deliveries with 806 commercial

  • jets, 5.6% growth from 2017. And the stocks have reflected the

  • company's dominance. Both Airbus and Boeing stocks have

  • significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 10 years.

  • How can you tell these planes apart? Boeing and Airbus have

  • subtle differences. For instance the cockpit of a Boeing 737 has

  • a yoke control whereas an Airbus A320 does not. That's just one

  • of the many ways these companies diverge in their manufacturing.

  • Most are only felt by the crew and travelers with a keen eye.

  • How do airlines decide which company to buy from? Think of it

  • like going to a car dealership and choosing between a Chevy and

  • a Ford. Both are supposed to get you to your destination but

  • which one has a better deal? And what does the existing fleet

  • look like? For example, Spirit and Frontier operate only

  • Airbus, while Southwest is an all Boeing fleet. It's hard for

  • low cost operations like these to switch. The legacy airlines

  • usually have a mix of both.

  • So what does it take for companies like Airbus and Boeing to

  • control the airline industry? Well, building these airplanes

  • isn't cheap. To be a real competitor aviation companies must

  • have the money to spend.

  • The barriers to entry in this business are huge in terms of

  • capital requirements, in terms of technology experience,

  • customer support, customer finance, all of these things.

  • A single plane can run up millions of dollars in construction

  • fees. Boeing is currently working on a new series of airplanes

  • called the 777X. A single 777-9 has a list price of

  • $388.7 million dollars. That's because there are hundreds of

  • thousands of components to an airplane. A Boeing 747 alone is

  • made up of six million parts. But materials aren't the only

  • thing that costs aviation companies big. Safety comes with a

  • hefty price tag.

  • It's definitely a well-regulated industry. I don't think there's

  • any question about that. I actually view much, not

  • all, but I view much of that

  • regulation has a historical partnership that has actually served

  • the industry quite well. If you consider that the airlines today

  • aviation globally carries three billion passengers a

  • year and most years kill fewer than 500 of them. Some years

  • none. That's a pretty extraordinary record. And reaching that

  • level of safety requires a great expense And these massive

  • companies have plenty of money

  • And at least for Boeing a lot of it comes from the government. It

  • was the second largest government contractor in 2017 behind only

  • Lockheed Martin bringing in more than 23 billion dollars. It

  • also spends big to keep its close relationship with Washington.

  • The company spent more on lobbying than any other company in the

  • United States other than General Electric from 1998 to 2018

  • according to Open Secrets 270 million dollars. The acting

  • Secretary of Defense at the beginning of 2019 is a former Boeing

  • executive that led the 787 Dreamliner program. And the acting

  • administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration or the FAA

  • used to work for an airline manufacturing industry group

  • Responding to a question about its lobbying power. Boeing told

  • CNBC this "as the nation's largest exporter and a leading

  • producer of both commercial and defense aerospace

  • products, there are a number of significant policy issues at the

  • federal state and local levels with the potential to impact our

  • business our diverse workforce and our supply chain. Our team is

  • focused on telling Boeing"s story and supporting policies that

  • advance the aviation industry and U.S. manufacturing in the

  • communities where we live and work." The company's entrenched

  • position has a real world impact. When Delta ordered planes from

  • the Canadian company Bombardier in 2016, the company fought hard

  • arguing the smaller competitor could only sell them at such a

  • low price to the Canadian subsidies. The Trump administration

  • originally sided with Boeing putting tariffs on the planes but

  • Boeing ended up losing the battle when the U.S. International

  • Trade Commission ruled in Bombardier's is favor at the beginning

  • of 2018. The battle showed how hard it has become for smaller

  • companies to break into the market. Which brings us exactly to

  • that where is the competition?

  • Airbus and Boeing may command domestic and international airspace

  • but for regional flights the Canadian company Bombardier and the

  • Brazilian company Embraer control the market or at least they

  • used to. The overhead for the aviation manufacturing business

  • can be crushing and regional aircraft manufacturers like

  • Bombardier a couldn't shoulder the costs. Bombardier of

  • Canada had the

  • The best hope of getting in they simply ran out of cash. And this

  • year their jetliner was basically absorbed by Airbus.

  • Now the Airbus A220 rather than the Bombardier C-Series. In 2017

  • Airbus announced it would acquire a majority stake in

  • Bombardier's C-Series. Airbus rebranded the series as a new a

  • 220 and sold 120 former C-Series jets to U.S. airline companies

  • in 2018. Airbus will begin building the aircraft later this

  • month. And let's not forget about Brazilian aircraft company

  • Embraer the other regional jet manufacturer. Boeing just bought

  • 80% of Embraer commercial aviation business for a whopping $4.2

  • billion dollars. The Brazilian government approved the deal in

  • January and both companies announced that they expect to get all

  • the remaining approvals before 2020. The reality was that these

  • smaller companies weren't really competing anyway.

  • In 2016 regional aircraft deliveries were less than 7% of the

  • airplane market by value. Other countries like Russia and China

  • have also been trying to become prominent players in the

  • aircraft manufacturing industry. But so far both countries have

  • been unable to make a dent in the private sector.

  • They could flip a switch and they'd be great at it. The

  • frustrating thing about China is that the only possible thing

  • they could do wrong is exactly what they're doing. They've got

  • the biggest market in the world. They've got limited talent on

  • limited resources. They should be great in this. But the

  • strategy they're pursuing is basically digging a giant hole.

  • They're running it as a government operation and very simply

  • government owned industries to not do a good job beating

  • commercial market needs. Next thing they're doing is rather than

  • saying to their engineers, "hey you can go shopping for the best

  • components and technology around the globe..." They're saying

  • you have to buy stuff made in China and that means only stuff

  • that involves Western companies coming to China and surrendering

  • their intellectual property.

  • Boeing and Airbus aren't shying away from potential competition.

  • Boeing highlighted its partnership with COMAC on a completion of

  • a facility in Zhoushan. The company also told us, "China's

  • commercial aviation sector represents a major customer an

  • important partner in a potent competitor. China is on track to

  • become the largest commercial airplane market in the world over

  • the next few years. Getting the right balance between

  • collaborating and competing requires work in constant

  • evaluation." When we asked Airbus about Chinese competition

  • they told CNBC this "the Boeing Airbus to Oxley isn't likely to

  • last forever. In general we see China as the next major

  • competitor though in some 10 to 20 years from now. The Chinese

  • market is large enough for more than two competitors in every

  • market we welcome competition. Airbus was born competition,

  • thrives in it, and believes it is good for the development of

  • our industry.

  • So what's next for the aviation industry? Will it be the return

  • of supersonic travel? The aptly named Colorado-based company

  • Boom Supersonic announced it has received millions in funding

  • from investors. Boom is looking to make supersonic travel

  • mainstream. Marketing their aircraft is being able to get

  • passengers to and from their destinations two times faster than

  • business class flights today. Commercial supersonic travel isn't

  • new. In 1976 the first Concorde flights took off from London and

  • just outside Paris. But the Concorde days were short lived.

  • Noise pollution, mounting expenses, combined with a fatal air

  • crash caused the Concorde to be retired in 2003. But there are

  • many barriers sitting in the way of creating supersonic

  • commercial travel. The first being

  • it's illegal. They would have to demonstrate that these are

  • usable over land. At present it's not legal to operate

  • supersonically over landmasses at least in the U.S. NASA been

  • testing so called "quiet boom" aircraft

  • in fact they're testing them right now in the Gulf of

  • Mexico, the people of Galveston Texas are the dummies I guess to

  • see whether they notice the booms. It remains to be seen whether

  • those theoretical designs can be put into practice.

  • But the big question is can supersonic travel be economically

  • feasible?

  • Will they be willing to pay five times as much for the aircraft

  • and their operating costs in order to go twice as fast because

  • the fuel bill basically piles up. We're now flying slower than

  • we did in 1970s and 80s

  • but on the other hand there's this economic reason for that.

  • It's not just civilian companies developing supersonic travel.

  • Lockheed Martin announced plans to build supersonic aircraft

  • that could change commercial travel. Lockheed Martin is

  • partnering with NASA to develop the X59 QueSST. This aircraft is

  • designed to have a cruising altitude of 55,000 feet and a

  • terminal speed of 940 miles per hour. And forget that super

  • alarming sonic boom. According to the Lockheed Martin Skunkworks

  • team the plane would create a sound no louder than the slamming

  • of a car door. But the development is still in its beta stages.

  • As for Boeing and Airbus both companies told us supersonic and

  • hypersonic travel is on their radars and that they are committed

  • to pursuing multiple innovative technologies moving forward.

  • The future of the aviation manufacturing business remains

  • unclear.

  • But one thing is clear the multi-billion dollar industry will

  • continue to grow as millions of more people around the world

  • enter the middle class. The International Air Transport

  • Association expects the number of air travelers to double to 8.2

  • billion by 2037 and Airbus and Boeing are poised to take a

  • vantage of those soaring trends.

If you're one of the four billion people who flew last year

字幕と単語

B2 中上級

Why Airbus And Boeing Dominate The Sky

  • 215 4
    Benson Wu   に公開 2019 年 07 月 23 日
動画の中の単語

前のバージョンに戻す