字幕表 動画を再生する
-
Now, people have a lot of misconceptions about science --
-
about how it works and what it is.
-
A big one is that science is just a big old pile of facts.
-
But that's not true -- that's not even the goal of science.
-
Science is a process.
-
It's a way of thinking.
-
Gathering facts is just a piece of it, but it's not the goal.
-
The ultimate goal of science is to understand objective reality
-
the best way we know how,
-
and that's based on evidence.
-
The problem here is that people are flawed.
-
We can be fooled --
-
we're really good at fooling ourselves.
-
And so baked into this process is a way of minimizing our own bias.
-
So sort of boiled down more than is probably useful,
-
here's how this works.
-
If you want to do some science,
-
what you want to do is you want to observe something ...
-
say, \"The sky is blue. Hey, I wonder why?\"
-
You question it.
-
The next thing you do is you come up with an idea that may explain it:
-
a hypothesis.
-
Well, you know what? Oceans are blue.
-
Maybe the sky is reflecting the colors from the ocean.
-
Great, but now you have to test it
-
so you predict what that might mean.
-
Your prediction would be,
-
\"Well, if the sky is reflecting the ocean color,
-
it will be bluer on the coasts
-
than it will be in the middle of the country.\"
-
OK, that's fair enough,
-
but you've got to test that prediction
-
so you get on a plane, you leave Denver on a nice gray day,
-
you fly to LA, you look up and the sky is gloriously blue.
-
Hooray, your thesis is proven.
-
But is it really? No.
-
You've made one observation.
-
You need to think about your hypothesis, think about how to test it
-
and do more than just one.
-
Maybe you could go to a different part of the country
-
or a different part of the year
-
and see what the weather's like then.
-
Another good idea is to talk to other people.
-
They have different ideas, different perspectives,
-
and they can help you.
-
This is what we call peer review.
-
And in fact that will probably also save you a lot of money and a lot of time,
-
flying coast-to-coast just to check the weather.
-
Now, what happens if your hypothesis does a decent job but not a perfect job?
-
Well, that's OK,
-
because what you can do is you can modify it a little bit
-
and then go through this whole process again --
-
make predictions, test them --
-
and as you do that over and over again, you will hone this idea.
-
And if it gets good enough,
-
it may be accepted by the scientific community,
-
at least provisionally,
-
as a good explanation of what's going on,
-
at least until a better idea
-
or some contradictory evidence comes along.
-
Now, part of this process is admitting when you're wrong.
-
And that can be really, really hard.
-
Science has its strengths and weaknesses
-
and they depend on this.
-
One of the strengths of science is that it's done by people,
-
and it's proven itself to do a really good job.
-
We understand the universe pretty well because of science.
-
One of science's weaknesses is that it's done by people,
-
and we bring a lot of baggage along with us when we investigate things.
-
We are egotistical,
-
we are stubborn, we're superstitious,
-
we're tribal, we're humans --
-
these are all human traits and scientists are humans.
-
And so we have to be aware of that when we're studying science
-
and when we're trying to develop our theses.
-
But part of this whole thing,
-
part of this scientific process,
-
part of the scientific method,
-
is admitting when you're wrong.
-
I know, I've been there.
-
Many years ago I was working on Hubble Space Telescope,
-
and a scientist I worked with came to me with some data,
-
and he said, \"I think there may be a picture
-
of a planet orbiting another star in this data.\"
-
We had not had any pictures taken of planets orbiting other stars yet,
-
so if this were true,
-
then this would be the first one
-
and we would be the ones who found it.
-
That's a big deal.
-
I was very excited,
-
so I just dug right into this data.
-
I spent a long time trying to figure out if this thing were a planet or not.
-
The problem is planets are faint and stars are bright,
-
so trying to get the signal out of this data
-
was like trying to hear a whisper in a heavy metal concert --
-
it was really hard.
-
I tried everything I could,
-
but after a month of working on this,
-
I came to a realization ... couldn't do it.
-
I had to give up.
-
And I had to tell this other scientist,
-
\"The data's too messy.
-
We can't say whether this is a planet or not.\"
-
And that was hard.
-
Then later on we got follow-up observations with Hubble,
-
and it showed that it wasn't a planet.
-
It was a background star or galaxy, something like that.
-
Well, not to get too technical, but that sucked.
-
(Laughter)
-
I was really unhappy about this.
-
But that's part of it.
-
You have to say, \"Look, you know, we can't do this with the data we have.\"
-
And then I had to face up to the fact
-
that even the follow-up data showed we were wrong.
-
Emotionally I was pretty unhappy.
-
But if a scientist is doing their job correctly,
-
being wrong is not so bad
-
because that means there's still more stuff out there --
-
more things to figure out.
-
Scientists don't love being wrong but we love puzzles,
-
and the universe is the biggest puzzle of them all.
-
Now having said that,
-
if you have a piece and it doesn't fit no matter how you move it,
-
jamming it in harder isn't going to help.
-
There's going to be a time when you have to let go of your idea
-
if you want to understand the bigger picture.
-
The price of doing science is admitting when you're wrong,
-
but the payoff is the best there is:
-
knowledge and understanding.
-
And I can give you a thousand examples of this in science,
-
but there's one I really like.
-
It has to do with astronomy,
-
and it was a question that had been plaguing astronomers
-
literally for centuries.
-
When you look at the Sun, it seems special.
-
It is the brightest object in the sky,
-
but having studied astronomy, physics, chemistry, thermodynamics for centuries,
-
we learned something very important about it.
-
It's not that special.
-
It's a star just like millions of other stars.
-
But that raises an interesting question.
-
If the Sun is a star
-
and the Sun has planets,
-
do these other stars have planets?
-
Well, like I said with my own failure in the \"planet\" I was looking for,
-
finding them is super hard,
-
but scientists tend to be pretty clever people
-
and they used a lot of different techniques
-
and started observing stars.
-
And over the decades
-
they started finding some things that were pretty interesting,
-
right on the thin, hairy edge of what they were able to detect.
-
But time and again, it was shown to be wrong.
-
That all changed in 1991.
-
A couple of astronomers --
-
Alexander Lyne -- Andrew Lyne, pardon me --
-
and Matthew Bailes,
-
had a huge announcement.
-
They had found a planet orbiting another star.
-
And not just any star, but a pulsar,
-
and this is the remnant of a star that has previously exploded.
-
It's blasting out radiation.
-
This is the last place in the universe you would expect to find a planet,
-
but they had very methodically looked at this pulsar,
-
and they detected the gravitational tug of this planet as it orbited the pulsar.
-
It looked really good.
-
The first planet orbiting another star had been found ...
-
except not so much.
-
(Laughter)
-
After they made the announcement,
-
a bunch of other astronomers commented on it,
-
and so they went back and looked at their data
-
and realized they had made a very embarrassing mistake.
-
They had not accounted for some very subtle characteristics
-
of the Earth's motion around the Sun,
-
which affected how they measured this planet going around the pulsar.
-
And it turns out that when they did account for it correctly,
-
poof -- their planet disappeared.
-
It wasn't real.
-
So Andrew Lyne had a very formidable task.
-
He had to admit this.
-
So in 1992 at the American Astronomical Society meeting,
-
which is one of the largest gatherings of astronomers on the planet,
-
he stood up and announced that he had made a mistake
-
and that the planet did not exist.
-
And what happened next --
-
oh, I love this --
-
what happened next was wonderful.
-
He got an ovation.
-
The astronomers weren't angry at him;
-
they didn't want to chastise him.
-
They praised him for his honesty and his integrity.
-
I love that!
-
Scientists are people.
-
(Laughter)
-
And it gets better!
-
(Laughter)
-
Lyne steps off the podium.
-
The next guy to come up is a man named Aleksander Wolszczan
-
He takes the microphone and says,
-
\"Yeah, so Lyne's team didn't find a pulsar planet,
-
but my team found not just one
-
but two planets orbiting a different pulsar.
-
We knew about the problem that Lyne had,
-
we checked for it, and yeah, ours are real.\"
-
And it turns out he was right.
-
And in fact, a few months later,
-
they found a third planet orbiting this pulsar
-
and it was the first exoplanet system ever found --
-
what we call alien worlds -- exoplanets.
-
That to me is just wonderful.
-
At that point the floodgates were opened.
-
In 1995 a planet was found around a star more like the Sun,
-
and then we found another and another.
-
This is an image of an actual planet orbiting an actual star.
-
We kept getting better at it.
-
We started finding them by the bucketload.
-
We started finding thousands of them.
-
We built observatories specifically designed to look for them.
-
And now we know of thousands of them.
-
We even know of planetary systems.
-
That is actual data, animated, showing four planets orbiting another star.
-
This is incredible. Think about that.
-
For all of human history,
-
you could count all the known planets in the universe on two hands --
-
nine -- eight?
-
Nine? Eight -- eight.
-
(Laughter)
-
Eh.
-
(Laughter)
-
But now we know they're everywhere.
-
Every star --
-
for every star you see in the sky there could be three, five, ten planets.
-
The sky is filled with them.
-
We think that planets may outnumber stars in the galaxy.
-
This is a profound statement,
-
and it was made because of science.
-
And it wasn't made just because of science and the observatories and the data;
-
it was made because of the scientists who built the observatories,
-
who took the data,
-
who made the mistakes and admitted them
-
and then let other scientists build on their mistakes
-
so that they could do what they do
-
and figure out where our place is in the universe.
-
That is how you find the truth.
-
Science is at its best when it dares to be human.