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  • China's electric car market is

  • skyrocketing and Tesla needs the

  • world's largest auto market in order to succeed.

  • China produced half of global electric

  • vehicles last year. The United States

  • produced about 20%. China's clearly

  • way out in front of the United States

  • in terms of size and production scale.

  • Analysts are expecting that in around

  • five years, EV's and hybrids will

  • represent about 20% of the

  • overall vehicle market around the

  • world. Just the size of the Chinese

  • market is so appealing to anyone that makes cars.

  • China is one of the biggest proponents

  • of electric vehicles. In 2017, China

  • sold 777,000 new energy vehicles, a 53 % increase over 2016. And China is

  • expected to reach 2,000,000 EV's by 2020.

  • Since 2012 , there's been more than $60 billion in direct subsidies to lower

  • the cost of electric vehicles for

  • Chinese consumers. So by the time an

  • electric vehicle lands in a Chinese

  • driveway, it may cost as little as $10,000 to $12,000.

  • But Tesla has faced one big

  • disadvantage. In China, which is the

  • biggest market for EV's we have never

  • had any subsidies or tax incentives for

  • vehicles. Trade tensions that led to

  • high taxes for U.S. autos imported to

  • China have hurt Tesla's bottom line. An

  • $80,000 Model S in the United States

  • runs about $140,000 in China after

  • taxes. To succeed in the region Tesla

  • has no choice but to make its cars there. Once they can start

  • manufacturing domestically in China,

  • they can evade some of the costs of those tariffs.

  • They'll have a local supply chain setup.

  • It will just alleviate so much pain for them.

  • This is why Tesla broke ground on a new

  • factory in Shanghai this year and Elon

  • Musk is rushing to start production.

  • We need to bring the Shanghai factory

  • online. Our car is just very expensive

  • going into China for import duties, we

  • got transport costs, we've got higher

  • cost of labor here and we've never been

  • eligible for any of the EV tax credits.

  • Once the cars made there it is eligible

  • for that. The new Gigafactory is also

  • what will allow Tesla to offer the

  • Model 3 at an affordable price.

  • Bottom line is we need the Shanghai

  • factory to achieve that 10k rate and

  • have the cars be affordable. The

  • inhibitor is affordability. If we made

  • it more affordable, the demand is extraordinary. Allowing

  • foreign automakers to come in and own

  • their own factory and operate

  • domestically in China was huge for

  • Tesla. China's going to be a massive

  • theme for Tesla in 2019. So much of

  • their future business hinges on how

  • well they do in China. How quickly they

  • get that factory up and running.

  • The Chinese government has helped Tesla

  • tremendously by giving them a special

  • dispensation so that they can be an

  • independent foreign auto manufacturer

  • in China without needing a local partner.

  • Tesla's not required to have a joint

  • venture partner, it can own 100%

  • of its operation here. That's a real

  • nice break in timing for Tesla. It'll

  • allow them to control their operations

  • in China, which no other global

  • automaker has been able to do so far.

  • Just because Tesla is opening a factory

  • in China isn't a guarantee that it will be a success.

  • Tesla has to sell these products at a

  • profit. They still have to get the

  • consumer to fork over a huge amount of

  • money for their product.

  • But perhaps the biggest challenge Tesla

  • faces in China is steep competition

  • from established players. Companies

  • making EV's in China

  • they range from really large players

  • like BYD, which is backed by Warren

  • Buffett and BAIC, which is backed by

  • the Chinese government there. Porsche

  • has the Taycan, Jaguar has I -PACE, to

  • new players like NIO. Tesla's got a lot

  • of competition locally in China.

  • NIO is basically the pioneer. We're the

  • first with a premium electric vehicle

  • in China and the only other company

  • with a premium electrical SUV in China

  • is Tesla with Model X. Ours comes in

  • less than half the price. So we think

  • we compete very well and is customized

  • for the modern Chinese family.

  • It's a variety of long established

  • brands like General Motors, Volkswagen.

  • Ford is participating in this as well

  • but they have oftentimes paired up with

  • other Chinese based companies like BYD,

  • Geely, SAIC. Unlike the U.S., China's

  • EV manufacturers have focused on

  • creating short range, low cost and low speed electric vehicles.

  • With most coming in under $20,000. I

  • think their biggest risk will be to a

  • certain extent companies like NIO that

  • have a lot of cash and have invested a

  • lot in the design of their cars and

  • have some kind of interesting things

  • maybe that are the next level.

  • Aside from the larger automakers

  • numerous startups are also entering the

  • space. According to our own database,

  • there are at least 50 Chinese startups

  • in the electric vehicle spaces that's

  • phenomenal when you think about it.

  • Some of Tesla's biggest competition

  • however, could come from other foreign

  • luxury brands also entering the Chinese

  • market. Automakers like Porsche, Audi

  • and Mercedes are all releasing EV's in

  • 2019 that will compete directly with Tesla.

  • A company like Mercedes has been in

  • China for a long time. They've got a

  • network to sell cars so they've got

  • this head start, especially on the

  • network part of it right. They've

  • already got their factories running and

  • then here comes Audi, here comes

  • Mercedes, here comes BMW with battery

  • electrics sort of for the first time. I

  • think there's no way they can't go to China.

  • You can't ignore a market of that size

  • especially if you're a luxury brand.

  • But even in a crowded market, Tesla

  • could still be a formidable player in China.

  • One thing Tesla has going for it in

  • China is the appeal of this Western

  • brand. They're an early mover in EVs.

  • They really made EVs into a luxury thing

  • instead of these little short hop kind

  • of golf carts. And the appeal of Elon

  • Musk is there too. He's a wild character.

  • He's an outspoken, unconventional CEO

  • and people are really committed to the company's mission.

  • You know they believe in it. The good

  • news for Tesla is that China is home to

  • the largest luxury car market in the world by far.

  • And Chinese buy twice as many luxury

  • cars as Americans do. More than two

  • million last year. So there's no

  • question the potential is there. It'll

  • come down to execution. Can they get

  • that plant in order and running quickly

  • and make sure the quality is there? The

  • Chinese will be forgiving on price but

  • not on quality. If there's any quality

  • issues, they can be punishing.

China's electric car market is

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テスラとエロン・ムスクが中国で課題に直面する理由 (Why Tesla And Elon Musk Face Challenges In China)

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    PENG に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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