字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント China's electric car market is skyrocketing and Tesla needs the world's largest auto market in order to succeed. China produced half of global electric vehicles last year. The United States produced about 20%. China's clearly way out in front of the United States in terms of size and production scale. Analysts are expecting that in around five years, EV's and hybrids will represent about 20% of the overall vehicle market around the world. Just the size of the Chinese market is so appealing to anyone that makes cars. China is one of the biggest proponents of electric vehicles. In 2017, China sold 777,000 new energy vehicles, a 53 % increase over 2016. And China is expected to reach 2,000,000 EV's by 2020. Since 2012 , there's been more than $60 billion in direct subsidies to lower the cost of electric vehicles for Chinese consumers. So by the time an electric vehicle lands in a Chinese driveway, it may cost as little as $10,000 to $12,000. But Tesla has faced one big disadvantage. In China, which is the biggest market for EV's we have never had any subsidies or tax incentives for vehicles. Trade tensions that led to high taxes for U.S. autos imported to China have hurt Tesla's bottom line. An $80,000 Model S in the United States runs about $140,000 in China after taxes. To succeed in the region Tesla has no choice but to make its cars there. Once they can start manufacturing domestically in China, they can evade some of the costs of those tariffs. They'll have a local supply chain setup. It will just alleviate so much pain for them. This is why Tesla broke ground on a new factory in Shanghai this year and Elon Musk is rushing to start production. We need to bring the Shanghai factory online. Our car is just very expensive going into China for import duties, we got transport costs, we've got higher cost of labor here and we've never been eligible for any of the EV tax credits. Once the cars made there it is eligible for that. The new Gigafactory is also what will allow Tesla to offer the Model 3 at an affordable price. Bottom line is we need the Shanghai factory to achieve that 10k rate and have the cars be affordable. The inhibitor is affordability. If we made it more affordable, the demand is extraordinary. Allowing foreign automakers to come in and own their own factory and operate domestically in China was huge for Tesla. China's going to be a massive theme for Tesla in 2019. So much of their future business hinges on how well they do in China. How quickly they get that factory up and running. The Chinese government has helped Tesla tremendously by giving them a special dispensation so that they can be an independent foreign auto manufacturer in China without needing a local partner. Tesla's not required to have a joint venture partner, it can own 100% of its operation here. That's a real nice break in timing for Tesla. It'll allow them to control their operations in China, which no other global automaker has been able to do so far. Just because Tesla is opening a factory in China isn't a guarantee that it will be a success. Tesla has to sell these products at a profit. They still have to get the consumer to fork over a huge amount of money for their product. But perhaps the biggest challenge Tesla faces in China is steep competition from established players. Companies making EV's in China they range from really large players like BYD, which is backed by Warren Buffett and BAIC, which is backed by the Chinese government there. Porsche has the Taycan, Jaguar has I -PACE, to new players like NIO. Tesla's got a lot of competition locally in China. NIO is basically the pioneer. We're the first with a premium electric vehicle in China and the only other company with a premium electrical SUV in China is Tesla with Model X. Ours comes in less than half the price. So we think we compete very well and is customized for the modern Chinese family. It's a variety of long established brands like General Motors, Volkswagen. Ford is participating in this as well but they have oftentimes paired up with other Chinese based companies like BYD, Geely, SAIC. Unlike the U.S., China's EV manufacturers have focused on creating short range, low cost and low speed electric vehicles. With most coming in under $20,000. I think their biggest risk will be to a certain extent companies like NIO that have a lot of cash and have invested a lot in the design of their cars and have some kind of interesting things maybe that are the next level. Aside from the larger automakers numerous startups are also entering the space. According to our own database, there are at least 50 Chinese startups in the electric vehicle spaces that's phenomenal when you think about it. Some of Tesla's biggest competition however, could come from other foreign luxury brands also entering the Chinese market. Automakers like Porsche, Audi and Mercedes are all releasing EV's in 2019 that will compete directly with Tesla. A company like Mercedes has been in China for a long time. They've got a network to sell cars so they've got this head start, especially on the network part of it right. They've already got their factories running and then here comes Audi, here comes Mercedes, here comes BMW with battery electrics sort of for the first time. I think there's no way they can't go to China. You can't ignore a market of that size especially if you're a luxury brand. But even in a crowded market, Tesla could still be a formidable player in China. One thing Tesla has going for it in China is the appeal of this Western brand. They're an early mover in EVs. They really made EVs into a luxury thing instead of these little short hop kind of golf carts. And the appeal of Elon Musk is there too. He's a wild character. He's an outspoken, unconventional CEO and people are really committed to the company's mission. You know they believe in it. The good news for Tesla is that China is home to the largest luxury car market in the world by far. And Chinese buy twice as many luxury cars as Americans do. More than two million last year. So there's no question the potential is there. It'll come down to execution. Can they get that plant in order and running quickly and make sure the quality is there? The Chinese will be forgiving on price but not on quality. If there's any quality issues, they can be punishing.