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  • America's economy is approaching a big milestone.

  • If it keeps humming until July 2019, it will be the longest expansion in U.S. history.

  • It would be exactly one decade and one month old by then.

  • But there's another country with an even more impressive run.

  • Australia hasn't had a recession in 27 years.

  • It's even called the 'lucky country'

  • Three big lessons from Australia.

  • Be smart. Be organized. Be lucky. So if I've got any advice

  • for other countries, it's try and be as lucky as Australia.

  • That luck has to do with Australia's treasure trove of natural resources : iron ore, gas and coal.

  • You know Australia is on the other side of the world

  • and sitting on tremendously valuable minerals right at the point where the Chinese economy is just around the corner and exploding.

  • Australia and all its natural resources were in the right geographic neighborhood just as the Chinese economy started to take off.

  • And it just so happens that China did a big fiscal stimulus in 2008

  • and spent a great deal of money building new cities.

  • So all of those resources were drawn from places like Australia.

  • So that also served as a huge tailwind at a time when developed markets were in a whole lot of trouble.

  • The year 2008 was a time of economic turmoil.

  • The Global Financial Crisis hit and markets crumbled around the world.

  • But as it turns out this was also a year for Australia's economic management to really show off.

  • At the time the government had a very helpful and very low level of debt.

  • One reason?

  • Pension reform in the 1990s.

  • Australia set up a compulsory retirement system called the superannuation system.

  • It requires employers put money into its employees' retirement savings.

  • Australia's superannuation assets top $2.8 trillion dollars as September 2018.

  • Since companies and citizens have to build up retirement savings,

  • some of the financial burden to pay off pensions was taken off of Australia's government.

  • As other economies reeled in the wake of the 2008 crisis, the Australian Government was then able to put money directly into people's bank accounts.

  • This boosted consumer spending in order to stimulate growth.

  • In 2008, the Australian Government unlike some

  • other developed market governments actually jumped in very quickly with fiscal stimulus,

  • so that helped to kind of minimize the effect of the crisis.

  • The country's numbers continued to look sluggish after the financial crisis.

  • But they never quite dipped low enough

  • or for long enough to meet the definition of a recession.

  • It takes two quarters of negative growth to fall into a recession.

  • Australia's economy did post a few negative quarters since 2008, but no country's perfect.

  • Overall Australia's economy has been managed pretty well in recent years partly because of a strong and stable central bank.

  • Australia has an independent central bank and it's

  • a very well-run central bank.

  • It also has a floating exchange rate and the exchange rate helped it adjust to international shocks.

  • Australia's economic reforms gave it flexibility in times of hardship.

  • For example, floating the Australian dollar.

  • In 1983, Australia's government moved the dollar onto a floating exchange rate.

  • This meant that the dollar would be valued by supply and demand

  • instead of being subject to influence from its government or its central bank.

  • It allows the economy to react to shocks as well

  • Typically when an economy is hit by some sort of

  • negative shock, the currency will adjust.

  • It will depreciate and that helps promote exports.

  • So it really serves as a buffer.

  • Another reason behind Australia's economic track record lies in its immigration policy.

  • Since the late 1990s, Australia has seen growth in

  • temporary migration, many arriving to the country on student or temporary work visas.

  • The number of temporary migrants peaked in the year 2000.

  • However a recent change to immigration law in 2018

  • gave visa applicants more hurdles to get

  • through if they wanted to come to the country.

  • Even when our GDP per capita

  • average incomes aren't rising by much because the

  • number of people continues to rise that means the total

  • GDP continues to rise at even more rapid pace.

  • Immigration is one of the key reasons that Australians are used to talking about economic growth rates of 3 percent or 4 percent.

  • Part of that's underpinned by much faster population growth

  • Most experts think Australia's economy remains strong in 2019, but it's not without risks.

  • Australia's suffering at the moment from pretty weak wage growth.

  • That's worrying a lot of people.

  • There's a lot of fear right now that China is hitting a wall.

  • That will hit demand for Australian products.

  • The good news is to the extent that the Chinese are buying commodities

  • hopefully will find buyers from overseas for many of those commodities

  • if the Chinese are not there.

  • The bad news is the rest of the world economy is not doing that well.

  • For Australia to do really well, the rest of the world has to do well.

America's economy is approaching a big milestone.

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オーストラリアがここ数十年不況に陥っていない理由 (Why Australia Hasn't Had A Recession In Decades)

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    Tanya Chang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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