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  • Maria

  • Irma

  • Harvey.

  • The immediate impact of these powerful hurricanes was devastating.

  • Destroyed homes, knocked-out power grids and depleted resources.

  • So how do you measure the longer-term economic impact of a hurricane?

  • Between 1950 and 2016, 4,597 tropical cyclones around the world passed within 100 miles of a city,

  • affecting 3,113 cities and 132 countries or territories.

  • New research from the International Monetary Fund, the IMF, uses a complex formula to measure

  • the economic impact of tropical cyclones.

  • Depending on where you live, you might call a tropical cyclone a hurricane or a typhoon,

  • but they're all the same thing.

  • The report looks at how tropical cyclones affect something called GDP per capita,

  • which is basically the amount of goods produced and services provided in a country,

  • divided by its population.

  • The IMF measured the longer-term effects of tropical cyclones on GDP per capita

  • for a period of seven years after the storm struck.

  • It found output was almost 1% lower than if the storm hadn't happened.

  • Small states and islands, which are generally more exposed to tropical cyclones,

  • had a bigger negative impact losing 2% or more of GDP per capita.

  • One or two percent may not seem like a lot, but depending on the economy,

  • we could be talking about millions or even billions of dollars.

  • Calculating the economic impact of these storms can be tough.

  • There are a lot of variables to consider, like wind, precipitation patterns and population.

  • That's why estimates vary on how much storms affect economic growth.

  • The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates that since 1980, the United States has

  • sustained 212 weather disasters where the overall cost reached or exceeded $1 billion.

  • The total tab of these events combined was a whopping $1.2 trillion.

  • And that number is sure to escalate from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.

  • Initial cost estimates for Harvey in Texas are between $70 and $108 billion.

  • Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 had the most significant economic impact

  • with an estimated price tag of roughly $160 billion.

  • Here's a chart of jobs in New Orleans in the wake of Katrina.

  • Employment plunged right after the hurricane in September 2005,

  • but even 10 months after the storm, the economy averaged 95,000 fewer jobs than the year before.

  • Some of the biggest losses came from the tourism and shipping sectors.

  • Besides job losses, a storm's impact can be measured in a range of other economic indicators.

  • After Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, consumer confidence dipped in Texas and Florida

  • as Americans felt less optimistic about their outlook for the economy.

  • Storms can cause huge losses in the farming industry when crops are destroyed.

  • And of course property damages, transportation disruptions

  • and business closures all bring major economic costs.

  • These are all reasons why economists predict GDP will drop in the aftermath of a storm.

  • Growth often rebounds in the following quarters when reconstruction efforts get underway

  • and states or countries receive federal aid and insurance payouts.

  • But it still takes a long time to clean up the economic damage from a storm.

  • Research shows that even after 20 years, a country's economy has not fully recovered from the shock.

  • The IMF says climate change could make hurricanes even more frequent, and costly, in the years ahead.

  • The report analyzed the relationship between natural disasters and changes in temperature.

  • It found that tropical cyclones could become more common around the world

  • as greenhouse gas emissions increase.

  • So what can be done to mitigate some of the economic damage of these disasters?

  • The IMF says infrastructure, like dams, seawalls and irrigation systems, is key.

  • A good example is the Thames Barrier.

  • It's been credited with 'saving' London from high tides and storm surges on multiple occasions.

  • In Malaysia, the government built a dual-purpose tunnel that would combat flash floods and help with traffic.

  • After Katrina, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built a $14.5 billion flood-protection system

  • in southeast Louisiana, which includes a nearly two mile long, 26-foot-tall barrier visible from outer space.

  • And while these engineering marvels better prepare a city for flooding, a bigger storm can always strike.

  • Which is why other preventative measures are also recommended,

  • like stronger building laws, land use planning, zoning rules or early warning systems.

  • Spreading out the financial burden can also help countries cope.

  • For example, 17 countries in the Caribbean have contributed to a joint insurance pool.

  • If a hurricane, flood or earthquake hits one of these countries,

  • its government can tap into the fund to quickly respond in an emergency.

  • The IMF suggests the international community can play an active role in helping countries,

  • especially low-income nations, respond to weather shocks.

  • It says this is part of a sound economic policy and an essential humanitarian response.

  • Hey guys, it's Elizabeth.

  • Thanks so much for watching.

  • You should check out more of our videos, over here.

  • We're also taking your ideas for future CNBC Explains,

  • so leave your suggestions in the comments section.

  • And while you're at it, subscribe to our channel.

  • See ya!

Maria

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ハリケーンは経済にどのような影響を与えるのか?| CNBCが解説 (How do hurricanes affect the economy? | CNBC Explains)

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    kstmasa に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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