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  • On the 29 March 2019, when the clock strikes 11,

  • Britain will officially leave the European Union.

  • It will be a historic moment.

  • No country has ever left the EU before.

  • The mess caused by Brexit is the biggest problem

  • in the history of EU/UK relations.

  • What is that supposed to mean?

  • Money!

  • Even asking this question is controversial.

  • I can see you heading for the comment section

  • but hold on.

  • 52% for leave, 48% for remain.

  • Although the referendum in 2016 was close,

  • more British people voted for Brexit than have voted for anything else ever.

  • But it was also the first time in British history that voters chose something

  • that did not have a majority support in parliament.

  • Now there's a growing campaign focused on keeping Britain in the EU

  • by any means necessary.

  • The referendum result, if I'll compare it to a football match,

  • there was a dodgy referee, the opposition had one extra player

  • and the goal was scored in the 96th minute.

  • It was based on lies.

  • Britain may have triggered article 50 and begun the exit process under EU law,

  • but overturning Brexit is still theoretically possible.

  • Our article 50 letter could be withdrawn without cost or difficulty,

  • legal or political.

  • The EU, for all its technical, legal language, is a deeply political organisation.

  • It's going well, it's very very well organised.

  • If both sides, Britain and the EU, agreed to stop Brexit,

  • they would find a way to do it.

  • That is a very big if.

  • So let's look at the options.

  • It boils down to three main scenarios.

  • First up, the politicians stop Brexit by themselves.

  • It's important to remember that parliament by itself

  • has the legal authority to overturn the referendum.

  • The referendum was advisory.

  • For Brexit to take effect,

  • a majority of members of parliament have to allow it through.

  • If enough MPs decided to cancel Brexit,

  • in theory at least they could do so

  • but it would mean parliament overturning the result of a democratic referendum.

  • It would almost certainly provoke a massive backlash.

  • I fear that the great Brexit betrayal has begun.

  • But politicians overturning referendums isn't unheard of in Europe.

  • As recently as 2015, Greek voters said no to an EU bailout

  • that came with major austerity clauses.

  • In the end though Greek MPs ignored their voters

  • and overturned the referendum result to keep Greece in the eurozone.

  • Parliament is sovereign, if the MPs so chose,

  • they could just vote to annul the referendum

  • and to remain in the European Union.

  • That of course isn't going to happen, I don't think,

  • because it's a very bad look.

  • What easy way?

  • No matter what I do, somebody gets hurt.

  • So what about something a little easier to imagine?

  • You're joking.

  • You've probably heard a lot of talk about a possible second referendum

  • and the EU has a rich history of rerunning referendums.

  • just thrown a massive spanner into the mechanism that decides

  • how the European Union will be run.

  • Ireland voted to reject the EU's Lisbon treaty in 2008.

  • Irish voters were then asked to vote again in the face of an economic crisis.

  • Is this some kind of a deja vu?

  • The second time around, they voted the opposite way.

  • Five hundred and ninety-four thousand,

  • six hundred and six.

  • A second referendum is still pretty unlikely.

  • Parliament would have to agree to it for a start

  • and so it would come down to those MPs again

  • and time is running out fast.

  • There's also the question of what a second referendum would ask.

  • Leave v remain again?

  • Or a three-way choice between a deal, no deal

  • and no Brexit.

  • With the proviso that the EU will have a lot to say about what it wants,

  • The Conservatives in government, and Labour in opposition,

  • are committed to carrying out Brexit

  • and for now they're both against holding a new referendum.

  • We're not asking for a second referendum.

  • But politicians are highly attuned to the public mood.

  • If enough of them detected a clear majority calling

  • for a new referendum, the idea might just gain momentum.

  • With parliament split on the best way to deliver Brexit,

  • a new referendum could help break the deadlock and even reverse the original result,

  • Finally, there's the scenario that most worries Brexiteers.

  • Bino. No, not the Beano.

  • Although Jacob Rees-Mogg has been compared to Walter the Softy.

  • This is the theory that Brexit will be delayed or watered down so much

  • that what Britain ends up with is barely any different to what came before.

  • Could the prime minister inform the house

  • at what point it was decided that Brexit means remain.

  • So, no independent trade deals, no restrictions on immigration,

  • no real reduction in the amount Britain pays into the EU.

  • The prime minister has promised this won't happen over and over again.

  • But as Brexit Day approaches, Britain's new relationship with the EU seems

  • as undecided as ever.

  • Brexit might not be possible to stop, but one thing is certain:

  • the EU will continue to loom large over British politics.

  • Thanks for watching!

  • Leave your comments below

  • and subscribe if you want to watch more in this series.

On the 29 March 2019, when the clock strikes 11,

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Brexitは確実に起こるのか? (Is Brexit definitely going to happen?)

  • 479 18
    Jessieeee に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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