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On the 29 March 2019, when the clock strikes 11,
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Britain will officially leave the European Union.
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It will be a historic moment.
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No country has ever left the EU before.
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The mess caused by Brexit is the biggest problem
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in the history of EU/UK relations.
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What is that supposed to mean?
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Money!
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Even asking this question is controversial.
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I can see you heading for the comment section
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but hold on.
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52% for leave, 48% for remain.
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Although the referendum in 2016 was close,
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more British people voted for Brexit than have voted for anything else ever.
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But it was also the first time in British history that voters chose something
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that did not have a majority support in parliament.
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Now there's a growing campaign focused on keeping Britain in the EU
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by any means necessary.
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The referendum result, if I'll compare it to a football match,
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there was a dodgy referee, the opposition had one extra player
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and the goal was scored in the 96th minute.
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It was based on lies.
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Britain may have triggered article 50 and begun the exit process under EU law,
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but overturning Brexit is still theoretically possible.
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Our article 50 letter could be withdrawn without cost or difficulty,
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legal or political.
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The EU, for all its technical, legal language, is a deeply political organisation.
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It's going well, it's very very well organised.
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If both sides, Britain and the EU, agreed to stop Brexit,
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they would find a way to do it.
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That is a very big if.
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So let's look at the options.
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It boils down to three main scenarios.
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First up, the politicians stop Brexit by themselves.
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It's important to remember that parliament by itself
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has the legal authority to overturn the referendum.
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The referendum was advisory.
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For Brexit to take effect,
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a majority of members of parliament have to allow it through.
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If enough MPs decided to cancel Brexit,
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in theory at least they could do so
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but it would mean parliament overturning the result of a democratic referendum.
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It would almost certainly provoke a massive backlash.
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I fear that the great Brexit betrayal has begun.
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But politicians overturning referendums isn't unheard of in Europe.
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As recently as 2015, Greek voters said no to an EU bailout
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that came with major austerity clauses.
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In the end though Greek MPs ignored their voters
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and overturned the referendum result to keep Greece in the eurozone.
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Parliament is sovereign, if the MPs so chose,
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they could just vote to annul the referendum
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and to remain in the European Union.
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That of course isn't going to happen, I don't think,
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because it's a very bad look.
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What easy way?
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No matter what I do, somebody gets hurt.
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So what about something a little easier to imagine?
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You're joking.
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You've probably heard a lot of talk about a possible second referendum
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and the EU has a rich history of rerunning referendums.
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… just thrown a massive spanner into the mechanism that decides
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how the European Union will be run.
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Ireland voted to reject the EU's Lisbon treaty in 2008.
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Irish voters were then asked to vote again in the face of an economic crisis.
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Is this some kind of a deja vu?
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The second time around, they voted the opposite way.
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Five hundred and ninety-four thousand,
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six hundred and six.
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A second referendum is still pretty unlikely.
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Parliament would have to agree to it for a start
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and so it would come down to those MPs again
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and time is running out fast.
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There's also the question of what a second referendum would ask.
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Leave v remain again?
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Or a three-way choice between a deal, no deal
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and no Brexit.
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With the proviso that the EU will have a lot to say about what it wants,
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The Conservatives in government, and Labour in opposition,
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are committed to carrying out Brexit
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and for now they're both against holding a new referendum.
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We're not asking for a second referendum.
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But politicians are highly attuned to the public mood.
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If enough of them detected a clear majority calling
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for a new referendum, the idea might just gain momentum.
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With parliament split on the best way to deliver Brexit,
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a new referendum could help break the deadlock and even reverse the original result,
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Finally, there's the scenario that most worries Brexiteers.
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Bino. No, not the Beano.
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Although Jacob Rees-Mogg has been compared to Walter the Softy.
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This is the theory that Brexit will be delayed or watered down so much
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that what Britain ends up with is barely any different to what came before.
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Could the prime minister inform the house
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at what point it was decided that Brexit means remain.
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So, no independent trade deals, no restrictions on immigration,
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no real reduction in the amount Britain pays into the EU.
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The prime minister has promised this won't happen over and over again.
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But as Brexit Day approaches, Britain's new relationship with the EU seems
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as undecided as ever.
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Brexit might not be possible to stop, but one thing is certain:
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the EU will continue to loom large over British politics.
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Thanks for watching!
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