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  • So why do you think the rich should pay more in taxes?

    翻訳: Yasushi Aoki 校正: Yuko Yoshida

  • Why did you buy the latest iPhone?

    なぜ金持ちはもっと税金を 払うべきだと思うのか?

  • Why did you pick your current partner?


  • And why did so many people vote for Donald Trump?

    なぜ今付き合っている相手を 選んだのか?

  • What were the reasons, why did they do it?

    なぜあんなにも多くの人が ドナルド・トランプに投票したのか?

  • So we ask this kind of question all the time,

    どういう理由で そういう行動を取ったのか?

  • and we expect to get an answer.

    私達はよく そういうことを問い

  • And when being asked, we expect ourselves to know the answer,

    答えが得られることを 期待します

  • to simply tell why we did as we did.

    聞かれたときには 自分で答えを分かっていて

  • But do we really know why?

    なぜそうしたのか答えている だけだと思っています

  • So when you say that you prefer George Clooney to Tom Hanks,

    でも本当に理由を 分かっていたのでしょうか?

  • due to his concern for the environment,

    ジョージ・クルーニーの方が トム・ハンクスよりも好きなのは

  • is that really true?

    彼の環境問題への 考え方のためだと言うとき

  • So you can be perfectly sincere and genuinely believe


  • that this is the reason that drives your choice,


  • but to me, it may still feel like something is missing.

    それが自分の選択理由だと 心から信じているのだとしても

  • As it stands, due to the nature of subjectivity,

    私からすると まだ何か 欠けているように感じます

  • it is actually very hard to ever prove that people are wrong about themselves.


  • So I'm an experimental psychologist,

    自分自身についての主張が間違っていると 証明するのは とても難しい面があります

  • and this is the problem we've been trying to solve in our lab.


  • So we wanted to create an experiment

    私達の研究室では この問題を 解明しようとしています

  • that would allow us to challenge what people say about themselves,

    人が自分について 確信を持って言っていることが

  • regardless of how certain they may seem.

    実は正しくないことを 示せるような実験が

  • But tricking people about their own mind is hard.

    考案できないかと 思っていたんですが—

  • So we turned to the professionals.

    その人自身の心について相手を引っかける というのは難しいことなので

  • The magicians.


  • So they're experts at creating the illusion of a free choice.


  • So when they say, "Pick a card, any card,"

    自由な選択の幻想を生み出すことにかけて 彼らはプロです

  • the only thing you know is that your choice is no longer free.

    「どれでも一枚選んでください」と 彼らが言うとき

  • So we had a few fantastic brainstorming sessions

    その選択はすでに 自由ではないのです

  • with a group of Swedish magicians,

    スウェーデン人の マジシャンたちに

  • and they helped us create a method


  • in which we would be able to manipulate the outcome of people's choices.


  • This way we would know when people are wrong about themselves,


  • even if they don't know this themselves.

    本人が気付かずに 自分について間違っているとき

  • So I will now show you a short movie showing this manipulation.


  • So it's quite simple.

    この操作を行う様子を 短い映像でご覧に入れましょう

  • The participants make a choice,


  • but I end up giving them the opposite.

    実験の参加者は 選択をしますが

  • And then we want to see: How did they react, and what did they say?

    私は 相手が選んだのとは 逆の方を渡します

  • So it's quite simple, but see if you can spot the magic going on.

    その時に彼らがどう反応し 何と言うかを見たいと思います

  • And this was shot with real participants, they don't know what's going on.

    どこで仕掛けをしているか よく見ていてください

  • (Video) Petter Johansson: Hi, my name's Petter.

    これは実際の参加者の方で 何をするかは知らされていません

  • Woman: Hi, I'm Becka.

    (実験者) こんにちは ペタ—です

  • PJ: I'm going to show you pictures like this.

    (ベッカ) こんにちは ベッカです

  • And you'll have to decide which one you find more attractive.

    (実験者) こういう写真を お見せしますので

  • Becka: OK.

    どちらがより魅力的に見えるか 答えてください

  • PJ: And then sometimes, I will ask you why you prefer that face.

    (ベッカ) 分かりました

  • Becka: OK.

    (実験者) 時々 なぜそちらの方が 良いと思うのかもお聞きします

  • PJ: Ready? Becka: Yeah.

    (ベッカ) ええ

  • PJ: Why did you prefer that one?

    (実験者) では始めます (ベッカ) どうぞ

  • Becka: The smile, I think.

    (実験者) なぜそちらの方が 良いと思ったんですか?

  • PJ: Smile.

    (ベッカ) 笑顔かな

  • Man: One on the left.

    (実験者) 笑顔ね

  • Again, this one just struck me.

    (男性) 左の方

  • Interesting shot.


  • Since I'm a photographer, I like the way it's lit and looks.


  • Petter Johansson: But now comes the trick.

    私は写真家なので この光や見た感じが気に入りました

  • (Video) Woman 1: This one.

    (講演者) ここでトリックが登場します

  • PJ: So they get the opposite of their choice.

    (女性1) こっち

  • And let's see what happens.

    (講演者) 選んだのとは 逆の方を受け取ったとき—

  • Woman 2: Um ...

    果たしてどんな 反応をするのか

  • I think he seems a little more innocent than the other guy.

    (女性2) こっちかな

  • Man: The one on the left.

    もう1人よりも いい人そうに見えるから

  • I like her smile and contour of the nose and face.

    (男性) 左の方

  • So it's a little more interesting to me, and her haircut.

    この人の笑顔と 鼻や顔の形がいい

  • Woman 3: This one.

    より魅力的だし 髪型もいい

  • I like the smirky look better.

    (女性3) こっち

  • PJ: You like the smirky look better?


  • (Laughter)

    (実験者) ニヤリとしているのがいいと

  • Woman 3: This one.

    (ニヤリとする — 笑)

  • PJ: What made you choose him?

    (女性3) こっち

  • Woman 3: I don't know, he looks a little bit like the Hobbit.

    (実験者) そちらを選んだ理由は?

  • (Laughter)

    (女性3) さあ ホビットみたいなところかな

  • PJ: And what happens in the end


  • when I tell them the true nature of the experiment?

    (講演者) 実験の本当の目的を話したら

  • Yeah, that's it. I just have to ask a few questions.


  • Man: Sure.

    (実験者) これで終わりです いくつか質問したいことがあります

  • PJ: What did you think of this experiment, was it easy or hard?

    (男性) どうぞ

  • Man: It was easy.

    (実験者) このテストは簡単だったか 難しかったか?

  • PJ: During the experiments,

    (男性) 簡単でしたよ

  • I actually switched the pictures three times.

    (実験者) テスト中に

  • Was this anything you noticed?


  • Man: No. I didn't notice any of that.


  • PJ: Not at all? Man: No.

    (男性) いいえ まったく 気付きませんでした

  • Switching the pictures as far as ...

    (実験者) 全然? (男性) ええ

  • PJ: Yeah, you were pointing at one of them but I actually gave you the opposite.


  • Man: The opposite one. OK, when you --

    (実験者) あなたが指さしたのとは 逆の方をお渡ししました

  • No. Shows you how much my attention span was.

    (男性) 逆の方を

  • (Laughter)

    ははあ 気付きませんでした 注意力のなさが分かりますね

  • PJ: Did you notice that sometimes during the experiment


  • I switched the pictures?

    (実験者) テストの間 時々写真を

  • Woman 2: No, I did not notice that.

    すり替えていたのに 気付きましたか?

  • PJ: You were pointing at one, but then I gave you the other one.

    (女性2) いいえ 気付きませんでした

  • No inclination of that happening?

    (実験者) あなたが指さしたのとは 別の方を渡しました

  • Woman 2: No.

    そういうのを まったく感じなかった?

  • Woman 2: I did not notice.

    (女性2) ええ

  • (Laughs)


  • PJ: Thank you.


  • Woman 2: Thank you.

    (実験者) ありがとうございました

  • PJ: OK, so as you probably figured out now,

    (女性2) こちらこそ

  • the trick is that I have two cards in each hand,

    (講演者) たぶんお分かりになったと 思いますが

  • and when I hand one of them over,

    実は両手にカードを 2枚ずつ持っていて

  • the black one kind of disappears into the black surface on the table.


  • So using pictures like this,

    裏が黒いもう1枚は 黒いテーブルの上で 見えなくなるという寸法です

  • normally not more than 20 percent of the participants detect these tries.


  • And as you saw in the movie,

    すり替えに気付く人は 2割以下です

  • when in the end we explain what's going on,


  • they're very surprised and often refuse to believe the trick has been made.


  • So this shows that this effect is quite robust and a genuine effect.

    相手はとても驚き 信じようとしないこともあります

  • But if you're interested in self-knowledge, as I am,

    この効果がとても強く 本物だということが分かります

  • the more interesting bit is,

    皆さんが私のように 自己認識に興味があるなら

  • OK, so what did they say when they explained these choices?


  • So we've done a lot of analysis

    すり替えられた選択について 彼らがどう説明するかということです

  • of the verbal reports in these experiments.


  • And this graph simply shows


  • that if you compare what they say in a manipulated trial


  • with a nonmanipulated trial,


  • that is when they explain a normal choice they've made

    操作されていない試行を 比較すると—

  • and one where we manipulated the outcome,


  • we find that they are remarkably similar.

    すり替えられた結果の説明とを 比較すると

  • So they are just as emotional, just as specific,

    両者が 極めて 似ているということです

  • and they are expressed with the same level of certainty.

    同じくらいに感情的 同じくらいに具体的で

  • So the strong conclusion to draw from this

    同じ程度の確信を持って 説明しているのです

  • is that if there are no differences


  • between a real choice and a manipulated choice,

    実際の選択と 操作された選択とで違いがないなら

  • perhaps we make things up all the time.


  • But we've also done studies

    でっち上げているのかも しれないということです

  • where we try to match what they say with the actual faces.

    また 参加者の言ったことと

  • And then we find things like this.


  • So here, this male participant, he preferred the girl to the left,


  • he ended up with the one to the right.

    ここでは男性参加者が 左の女性の方が良いと言いましたが

  • And then, he explained his choice like this.


  • "She is radiant.

    自分の選択について こんな説明をしています

  • I would rather have approached her at the bar than the other one.


  • And I like earrings."

    バーで声をかけるとしたら こちらを選びます

  • And whatever made him choose the girl on the left to begin with,


  • it can't have been the earrings,

    そもそも左の女性を選んだ理由が 何だったにせよ

  • because they were actually sitting on the girl on the right.

    それはイヤリングのためでは なかったはずで

  • So this is a clear example of a post hoc construction.

    イヤリングは右の女性に ついていたんですから

  • So they just explained the choice afterwards.

    これは事後的な理由付けの 分かりやすい例です

  • So what this experiment shows is,

    自分の選択を後付けで 説明しているのです

  • OK, so if we fail to detect that our choices have been changed,


  • we will immediately start to explain them in another way.

    自分の選択がすり替えられていることに 気付かない場合

  • And what we also found

    人は即座に別の理由付けを し始めるということです

  • is that the participants often come to prefer the alternative,


  • that they were led to believe they liked.

    実験参加者は自分が好きだと 思い込まされたものを

  • So if we let them do the choice again,

    実際好むようになることが よくあるということです

  • they will now choose the face they had previously rejected.


  • So this is the effect we call "choice blindness."

    前には捨てた方を 選ぶようになるのです

  • And we've done a number of different studies --

    この効果は「選択盲」と 呼ばれています

  • we've tried consumer choices,

    私達は様々な研究を 行ってきました

  • choices based on taste and smell and even reasoning problems.


  • But what you all want to know is of course

    味やにおいに基づく選択 さらには理性的判断の問題まで

  • does this extend also to more complex, more meaningful choices?


  • Like those concerning moral and political issues.

    もっと複雑で意味深い選択にも 同じことが当てはまるのかということでしょう

  • So the next experiment, it needs a little bit of a background.


  • So in Sweden, the political landscape

    次の例は 少し背景の説明が 必要でしょう

  • is dominated by a left-wing and a right-wing coalition.


  • And the voters may move a little bit between the parties within each coalition,

    政治の舞台を左翼連合と 右翼連合が支配しています

  • but there is very little movement between the coalitions.

    投票する人はそれぞれの連合の中の 政党を変えることはあっても

  • And before each elections,

    一方の連合から他方へと 変えることはあまりありません

  • the newspapers and the polling institutes


  • put together what they call "an election compass"


  • which consists of a number of dividing issues


  • that sort of separates the two coalitions.

    2つの連合が 対立している論点を

  • Things like if tax on gasoline should be increased


  • or if the 13 months of paid parental leave

    たとえばガソリン税は 引き上げるべきかとか

  • should be split equally between the two parents


  • in order to increase gender equality.

    13ヶ月与えられる 有給育児休暇は

  • So, before the last Swedish election,

    両親に等分されるべきか といったことです

  • we created an election compass of our own.


  • So we walked up to people in the street


  • and asked if they wanted to do a quick political survey.


  • So first we had them state their voting intention

    政治についての簡単なアンケートに 協力してほしいと頼みました

  • between the two coalitions.


  • Then we asked them to answer 12 of these questions.

    どちらに入れるつもりかを 聞きます

  • They would fill in their answers,

    それから12項目の 質問をします

  • and we would ask them to discuss,


  • so OK, why do you think tax on gas should be increased?


  • And we'd go through the questions.

    なぜガソリン税を 引き上げるべきなのかというように

  • Then we had a color coded template

    すべての質問を 見ていきます

  • that would allow us to tally their overall score.

    それぞれの質問が左寄りか右寄りか 色で示したシートがあって

  • So this person would have one, two, three, four


  • five, six, seven, eight, nine scores to the left,

    この人の場合 1 2 3 4—

  • so he would lean to the left, basically.

    5 6 7 8 9個が左寄りで

  • And in the end, we also had them fill in their voting intention once more.

    全体として 左寄りだと分かります

  • But of course, there was also a trick involved.

    最後にもう一度 どちらに入れるつもりか尋ねます

  • So first, we walked up to people,

    もちろんここにも 仕掛けがあります

  • we asked them about their voting intention


  • and then when they started filling in,


  • we would fill in a set of answers going in the opposite direction.

    質問への答えを 記入してもらっている間に

  • We would put it under the notepad.

    こちらでは相手と 逆の答えを記入していきます

  • And when we get the questionnaire,

    そのシートを メモ帳の下に隠します

  • we would simply glue it on top of the participant's own answer.

    相手から答案を 受け取ったら

  • So there, it's gone.

    こちらで記入したシートを 相手の答案の上に貼り付けます

  • And then we would ask about each of the questions:


  • How did you reason here?

    それから それぞれの質問について 聞いていきます

  • And they'll state the reasons,


  • together we will sum up their overall score.


  • And in the end, they will state their voting intention again.


  • So what we find first of all here,

    最後にもう一度 投票先について聞きます

  • is that very few of these manipulations are detected.


  • And they're not detected in the sense that they realize,

    相手がこのような操作に気付くことは ほとんどないということで

  • "OK, you must have changed my answer,"


  • it was more the case that,

    「私の答えを変えたでしょう」 というのではなく

  • "OK, I must've misunderstood the question the first time I read it.

    「最初見たとき 質問を読み違えていたみたいです

  • Can I please change it?"

    答えを変えてもいいですか?」 と言ってきます

  • And even if a few of these manipulations were changed,

    そしてこれらの操作のいくつかが 戻された場合でも

  • the overall majority was missed.

    大半の操作は 見過ごされます

  • So we managed to switch 90 percent of the participants' answers

    9割の場合について 相手の答えを

  • from left to right, right to left, their overall profile.

    左から右か 右から左へと 変えることができました

  • And what happens then when they are asked to motivate their choices?

    それで選択の理由を聞いたら どうなるのでしょう?

  • And here we find much more interesting verbal reports


  • than compared to the faces.

    さらに面白い結果が 得られました

  • People say things like this, and I'll read it to you.


  • So, "Large-scale governmental surveillance of email and internet traffic

    「“政府によるメールや インターネットの大規模な監視は

  • ought to be permissible as means to combat international crime and terrorism."

    国際犯罪やテロと戦う手段として 認められるべき” ということについて

  • "So you agree to some extent with this statement." "Yes."

    ある程度は認めるべきだと」 「ええ」

  • "So how did you reason here?"


  • "Well, like, as it is so hard to get at international crime and terrorism,

    「国際犯罪やテロを取り締まるのは すごく難しいので

  • I think there should be those kinds of tools."

    そういった武器は 必要だと思います」

  • And then the person remembers an argument from the newspaper in the morning.

    それからこの人は 朝に新聞で読んだことを思い出します

  • "Like in the newspaper today,


  • it said they can like, listen to mobile phones from prison,

    たとえばギャングのボスが刑務所内から 犯罪を続けようとしていないか

  • if a gang leader tries to continue his crimes from inside.


  • And I think it's madness that we have so little power

    犯罪を抑止できる 可能性があるのに

  • that we can't stop those things

    その力をほとんど 使えないとしたら

  • when we actually have the possibility to do so."


  • And then there's a little bit back and forth in the end:


  • "I don't like that they have access to everything I do,

    「政府に自分のものを 何でも見られるのは気に入りませんが

  • but I still think it's worth it in the long run."

    長期的には その価値があると思います」

  • So, if you didn't know that this person

    この人が選択盲の実験の 参加者だと知らなければ