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  • Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

    翻訳: Mark Endo 校正: Yuko Yoshida

  • I'm here to talk to you about how globalized we are,

    今日は皆さんに 我々がいかにグローバル化されているか

  • how globalized we aren't,

    また いかにグローバル化されて「いない」か

  • and why it's important to actually be accurate

    そして そのような評価をするときに 実態を正確にとらえることが

  • in making those kinds of assessments.


  • And the leading point of view on this, whether measured


  • by number of books sold, mentions in media,

    どんな本が売れているか 何がメディアで取り上げられているか

  • or surveys that I've run with groups ranging from

    また 学生から 世界貿易機関(WTO)での各国代表までを

  • my students to delegates to the World Trade Organization,

    対象として 私が行った―

  • is this view that national borders

    意識調査の結果から見ても こうです

  • really don't matter very much anymore,


  • cross-border integration is close to complete,


  • and we live in one world.


  • And what's interesting about this view


  • is, again, it's a view that's held by pro-globalizers

    私がタイトルをこの講演に拝借した トム・フリードマンのような

  • like Tom Friedman, from whose book this quote is obviously excerpted,


  • but it's also held by anti-globalizers, who see this giant

    グローバル化の津波が 我々の生活をいつか無茶苦茶にすると考える

  • globalization tsunami that's about to wreck all our lives


  • if it hasn't already done so.


  • The other thing I would add is that this is not a new view.

    もう一つ付け加えたいのは これは新しい見方ではないことです

  • I'm a little bit of an amateur historian, so I've spent

    私はちょっとした アマチュア歴史家でもありまして

  • some time going back, trying to see the first mention

    過去にさかのぼり 最初にグローバル化について 触れた書物を探してみました

  • of this kind of thing. And the best, earliest quote


  • that I could find was one from David Livingstone,

    1850年代の デイヴィッド・リヴィングストンのもので

  • writing in the 1850s about how the railroad, the steam ship,

    鉄道、蒸気船 そして電信が

  • and the telegraph were integrating East Africa perfectly


  • with the rest of the world.


  • Now clearly, David Livingstone

    もちろん 今から見れば デイヴィッドの考えは

  • was a little bit ahead of his time,


  • but it does seem useful to ask ourselves,

    でも 我々がこれから どこに向かっているのかを考える前に

  • "Just how global are we?"

    「今 どれだけグローバル化されているのか?」

  • before we think about where we go from here.

    と自問し考えることは とても有用だと思います

  • So the best way I've found of trying to get people

    そこで 人々に 世界はフラットでないかもしれない

  • to take seriously the idea that the world may not be flat,

    それどころか程遠いかもしれない と真剣に考えてもらうために

  • may not even be close to flat, is with some data.

    一番良いのは データを見せることだと気づきました

  • So one of the things I've been doing over the last few years

    ここ数年 私が行っている調査のひとつは

  • is really compiling data on things that could either happen

    国内でも 国境を越えても 起こり得る物事についての

  • within national borders or across national borders,


  • and I've looked at the cross-border component

    私は 全体のうち 国境を越えたケースの

  • as a percentage of the total.


  • I'm not going to present all the data that I have here today,


  • but let me just give you a few data points.


  • I'm going to talk a little bit about one kind of information flow,

    これから紹介するのは 情報の流れの例と

  • one kind of flow of people, one kind of flow of capital,

    人の流れ 資本の流れ

  • and, of course, trade in products and services.

    そして もちろん 製品やサービスの取引の例です

  • So let's start off with plain old telephone service.

    まずは昔ながらの シンプルな電話から始めましょう

  • Of all the voice-calling minutes in the world last year,

    昨年の全世界 すべての音声通話のうち

  • what percentage do you think were accounted for


  • by cross-border phone calls?


  • Pick a percentage in your own mind.


  • The answer turns out to be two percent.

    答えは 2%なんです

  • If you include Internet telephony, you might be able


  • to push this number up to six or seven percent,


  • but it's nowhere near what people tend to estimate.

    しかし人々が想像するであろう 数字からは程遠いです

  • Or let's turn to people moving across borders.

    今度は 国境を越えて移動する人々はどうでしょう

  • One particular thing we might look at, in terms of

    長期的視点で 人の流れを見る

  • long-term flows of people, is what percentage


  • of the world's population is accounted for


  • by first-generation immigrants?


  • Again, please pick a percentage.

    さぁ また考えてみてください

  • Turns out to be a little bit higher.


  • It's actually about three percent.

    実際は おおよそ3%です

  • Or think of investment. Take all the real investment

    次は 投資を考えてみましょう

  • that went on in the world in 2010.


  • What percentage of that was accounted for

    何%が 海外への直接投資として

  • by foreign direct investment?


  • Not quite ten percent.


  • And then finally, the one statistic


  • that I suspect many of the people in this room have seen:

    おそらく ここにいる皆さんの多くは もう目にしている

  • the export-to-GDP ratio.


  • If you look at the official statistics, they typically indicate


  • a little bit above 30 percent.


  • However, there's a big problem with the official statistics,

    しかし 公式統計には大きな問題があります

  • in that if, for instance, a Japanese component supplier

    たとえば 日本の部品メーカーが

  • ships something to China to be put into an iPod,


  • and then the iPod gets shipped to the U.S.,


  • that component ends up getting counted multiple times.

    その部品は複数回輸出されたと 計算されてしまいます

  • So nobody knows how bad this bias

    このからくりがどれだけ 公式統計を押し上げているか

  • with the official statistics actually is, so I thought I would


  • ask the person who's spearheading the effort

    WTO事務局長であり この統計データ生成を推進している

  • to generate data on this, Pascal Lamy,


  • the Director of the World Trade Organization,


  • what his best guess would be


  • of exports as a percentage of GDP,


  • without the double- and triple-counting,


  • and it's actually probably a bit under 20 percent, rather than


  • the 30 percent-plus numbers that we're talking about.


  • So it's very clear that if you look at these numbers

    ということで いま紹介した数字や 私が著書

  • or all the other numbers that I talk about in my book,

    『ワールド3.0』で紹介している 多数のデータを見れば

  • "World 3.0," that we're very, very far from

    我々は 国際化が85、90、95%も進んでいる

  • the no-border effect benchmark, which would imply


  • internationalization levels of the order of 85, 90, 95 percent.

    まだ はるかはるか遠くにいることは 明らかです

  • So clearly, apocalyptically-minded authors


  • have overstated the case.


  • But it's not just the apocalyptics, as I think of them,

    でも これは 物事を大げさにとらえがちな

  • who are prone to this kind of overstatement.

    終末論者たちだけの問題ではないと 思うようになりました

  • I've also spent some time surveying audiences

    私は 世界の色々なところで

  • in different parts of the world


  • on what they actually guess these numbers to be.

    人々が実際にどんな数字を想像しているかの データを集めています

  • Let me share with you the results of a survey


  • that Harvard Business Review was kind enough to run


  • of its readership as to what people's guesses


  • along these dimensions actually were.


  • So a couple of observations stand out for me from this slide.

    いくつか 目につくことがありますね

  • First of all, there is a suggestion of some error.

    まず第一に 何か誤差があるみたいですね

  • Okay. (Laughter)


  • Second, these are pretty large errors. For four quantities

    第二に その誤差はとても大きな数字ですね

  • whose average value is less than 10 percent,

    ここにある 4項目の平均値は10%もないんです

  • you have people guessing three, four times that level.

    皆さん 実際の3倍4倍も高く見積もっています

  • Even though I'm an economist, I find that


  • a pretty large error.


  • And third, this is not just confined to the readers

    第三に これは 『ハーバード・ビジネス・レビュー』の

  • of the Harvard Business Review.


  • I've run several dozen such surveys in different parts

    私はこのような調査を 世界の色々なところで 何十回も行いましたが

  • of the world, and in all cases except one,


  • where a group actually underestimated

    それは 貿易額の対GDP比率が 過小評価されたものですが

  • the trade-to-GDP ratio, people have this tendency

    それを除けば 人々はこれらの数字を

  • towards overestimation, and so I thought it important


  • to give a name to this, and that's what I refer to

    ですので私はこの現象に 名前を付ける必要があると考え

  • as globaloney, the difference between the dark blue bars

    ウソのグローバル化 「グローバロニー」と名付けました

  • and the light gray bars.

    このスライドの青いバーと グレーのバーの差分のことです

  • Especially because, I suspect, some of you may still be


  • a little bit skeptical of the claims, I think it's important


  • to just spend a little bit of time thinking about


  • why we might be prone to globaloney.

    なぜ我々がグローバロニーに陥りやすいか 考えてみたいと思います

  • A couple of different reasons come to mind.


  • First of all, there's a real dearth of data in the debate.

    まず第一に 議論にあたり データが全然足りません

  • Let me give you an example. When I first published


  • some of these data a few years ago


  • in a magazine called Foreign Policy,


  • one of the people who wrote in, not entirely in agreement,

    賛否入り混じった投書の中に トム・フリードマンからのものがありました

  • was Tom Friedman. And since my article was titled


  • "Why the World Isn't Flat," that wasn't too surprising. (Laughter)

    でしたから それほど驚くことではありません (笑)

  • What was very surprising to me was Tom's critique,

    何に驚いたかというと 彼の批評の内容です

  • which was, "Ghemawat's data are narrow."

    「ゲマワットのデータは範囲が狭い」 というのです

  • And this caused me to scratch my head, because


  • as I went back through his several-hundred-page book,


  • I couldn't find a single figure, chart, table,

    ただのひとつの図 グラフ 表

  • reference or footnote.

    参考文献 脚注も見当たらないのです

  • So my point is, I haven't presented a lot of data here

    ですので 言いたいのは 私は自分の記事の正当性を納得させるのに

  • to convince you that I'm right, but I would urge you


  • to go away and look for your own data


  • to try and actually assess whether some of these

    私達を批判する根拠である 使い古されたグローバル化の考え方が

  • hand-me-down insights that we've been bombarded with


  • actually are correct.

    データを探してはどうか ということです

  • So dearth of data in the debate is one reason.

    ともかく 議論のためのデータが足りないのは ひとつの理由です

  • A second reason has to do with peer pressure.

    二つ目の理由は 周囲からのプレッシャーです

  • I remember, I decided to write my


  • "Why the World Isn't Flat" article, because

    「なぜ世界はフラットではないか」を 書こうと決めたのは

  • I was being interviewed on TV in Mumbai,


  • and the interviewer's first question to me was,


  • "Professor Ghemawat, why do you still believe

    「教授 なぜ あなたはまだ 地球が丸いと信じているのですか?」

  • that the world is round?" And I started laughing,

    というもので 私は笑ってしまいました

  • because I hadn't come across that formulation before. (Laughter)

    そんな論法で仕掛けられたことは 初めてでしたので(笑)

  • And as I was laughing, I was thinking,


  • I really need a more coherent response, especially

    もっと明快な受け答えが必要だと 特に国営テレビですから

  • on national TV. I'd better write something about this. (Laughter)

    これは何か書かないといけないな と思いましたね(笑)

  • But what I can't quite capture for you

    そして 皆さんにうまく伝わるかわかりませんが

  • was the pity and disbelief


  • with which the interviewer asked her question.


  • The perspective was, here is this poor professor.

    彼女の見方はこうです 「ここに哀れな教授がいます

  • He's clearly been in a cave for the last 20,000 years.


  • He really has no idea

    だから いま世界で何が起きているのか

  • as to what's actually going on in the world.


  • So try this out with your friends and acquaintances,


  • if you like. You'll find that it's very cool


  • to talk about the world being one, etc.


  • If you raise questions about that formulation,


  • you really are considered a bit of an antique.


  • And then the final reason, which I mention,

    さて 最後の理由ですが

  • especially to a TED audience, with some trepidation,

    特にTED聴講者の皆さんに話すのは 少し気がひけますが

  • has to do with what I call "techno-trances."


  • If you listen to techno music for long periods of time,


  • it does things to your brainwave activity. (Laughter)


  • Something similar seems to happen

    同じように テクノロジーの進歩が

  • with exaggerated conceptions of how technology

    全ての文化の壁 政治の壁 地理的な距離までも

  • is going to overpower in the very immediate run


  • all cultural barriers, all political barriers,


  • all geographic barriers, because at this point


  • I know you aren't allowed to ask me questions,


  • but when I get to this point in my lecture with my students,


  • hands go up, and people ask me,


  • "Yeah, but what about Facebook?"

    「そうですね でも Facebook はどうですか?」

  • And I got this question often enough that I thought

    しょっちゅう聞かれるので Facebook についても

  • I'd better do some research on Facebook.


  • Because, in some sense, it's the ideal kind of technology

    なぜなら これは ある意味 私の考察対象として

  • to think about. Theoretically, it makes it


  • as easy to form friendships halfway around the world

    理論上は Facebook があれば 地球の裏側に友達を作るのと

  • as opposed to right next door.


  • What percentage of people's friends on Facebook

    では 私が調査した人たちの

  • are actually located in countries other than where


  • people we're analyzing are based?

    何%が 国外の友達だったでしょうか

  • The answer is probably somewhere between

    答えは だいたい10~15%の間です

  • 10 to 15 percent.


  • Non-negligible, so we don't live in an entirely local

    確かに私たちの生きる世界は 地域 国の中だけ限定されてはいません

  • or national world, but very, very far from the 95 percent level

    でも 皆さんが想像するであろう 95%のグローバル化からは程遠いですね

  • that you would expect, and the reason's very simple.


  • We don't, or I hope we don't, form friendships at random

    私達は 少なくとも私はそうであってほしいと願いますが

  • on Facebook. The technology is overlaid

    Facebook でランダムに 友達を作りたくはないからです

  • on a pre-existing matrix of relationships that we have,

    テクノロジーは 我々が築き上げた人間関係の上に存在するもので

  • and those relationships are what the technology

    築いた人間関係がテクノロジーに 取って代わられることはありえません

  • doesn't quite displace. Those relationships are why


  • we get far fewer than 95 percent of our friends


  • being located in countries other than where we are.


  • So does all this matter? Or is globaloney

    さて 実際にこれらは問題なんでしょうか

  • just a harmless way of getting people to pay more attention

    それとも グローバロニーは無害で グローバル化に関することに

  • to globalization-related issues?


  • I want to suggest that actually,

    私に言わせれば グローバロニーは

  • globaloney can be very harmful to your health.


  • First of all, recognizing that the glass

    まず第一に グローバル化の過程は

  • is only 10 to 20 percent full is critical to seeing


  • that there might be potential for additional gains

    これから さらなる統合により 我々がもっと大きく進歩できるという考え方に

  • from additional integration,


  • whereas if we thought we were already there,

    一方 もし我々がそれを既に達成してしまったと思えば

  • there would be no particular point to pushing harder.


  • It's a little bit like, we wouldn't be having a conference

    例えるなら もし我々がすでに十分オープンで

  • on radical openness if we already thought we were totally open

    どんな知識も 障害なく 共有しあうことができているとしたら

  • to all the kinds of influences that are being talked about

    わざわざ こんな風に 最先端の知識を共有する

  • at this conference.


  • So being accurate about how limited globalization levels are

    ですから グローバル化がいかに発展途上なのか

  • is critical to even being able to notice

    正確に知ることは 今後の進歩の余地を

  • that there might be room for something more,


  • something that would contribute further to global welfare.


  • Which brings me to my second point.

    さて第二のポイントですが グローバル化を

  • Avoiding overstatement is also very helpful


  • because it reduces and in some cases even reverses


  • some of the fears that people have about globalization.


  • So I actually spend most of my "World 3.0" book

    ですので 私は著書『ワールド3.0』の大半を

  • working through a litany of market failures and fears

    繰り返される市場の失敗や グローバル化が状況をさらに悪化させるのではという

  • that people have that they worry globalization is going to exacerbate.


  • I'm obviously not going to be able to do that for you today,

    もちろん 皆さんの考えを 今日すぐに変えられるわけはありません

  • so let me just present to you two headlines

    今日のところは 私の考えをまとめた

  • as an illustration of what I have in mind.


  • Think of France and the current debate about immigration.

    フランスで現在起こっている 移民に関する議論を考えてみてください

  • When you ask people in France what percentage

    フランス人に 人口の何%が

  • of the