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  • Chris Anderson: Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.

    (クリス・アンダーソン) イーロン またTEDに来ていただき

  • It's great to have you here.


  • Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.

    (イーロン・マスク) こちらこそ光栄です

  • CA: So, in the next half hour or so,

    (クリス) これから30分ほどで

  • we're going to spend some time

    心躍る未来の姿が どんなものになるのか

  • exploring your vision for what an exciting future might look like,

    あなたのビジョンを お聞きしたいのですが

  • which I guess makes the first question a little ironic:

    それからすると最初の質問は 少し皮肉かもしれません

  • Why are you boring?

    どうして穴なんか掘ってるんですか? (あなたはどうして退屈なんですか?)

  • EM: Yeah.

    (イーロン) そうですね

  • I ask myself that frequently.


  • We're trying to dig a hole under LA,

    私たちはロサンゼルスの地下に 穴を掘ろうとしています

  • and this is to create the beginning


  • of what will hopefully be a 3D network of tunnels


  • to alleviate congestion.


  • So right now, one of the most soul-destroying things is traffic.

    現在の我々にとって最もうんざり させられるものが 交通渋滞です

  • It affects people in every part of the world.

    世界の至る所で 問題になっています

  • It takes away so much of your life.


  • It's horrible.


  • It's particularly horrible in LA.


  • (Laughter)


  • CA: I think you've brought with you

    (クリス) それについて 最初のコンセプト映像を

  • the first visualization that's been shown of this.

    お持ちいただいている ということなので

  • Can I show this?


  • EM: Yeah, absolutely. So this is the first time --

    (イーロン) そうですね

  • Just to show what we're talking about.

    何の話をしているのか それで分かるでしょう

  • So a couple of key things that are important


  • in having a 3D tunnel network.

    鍵となるものが 2つあります

  • First of all, you have to be able


  • to integrate the entrance and exit of the tunnel


  • seamlessly into the fabric of the city.

    継ぎ目なく接続する 必要があります

  • So by having an elevator,

    車をスケートみたいな ものに載せ

  • sort of a car skate, that's on an elevator,

    エレベーターで 運ぶことで

  • you can integrate the entrance and exits to the tunnel network


  • just by using two parking spaces.

    2台分の駐車スペースだけで 実現できます

  • And then the car gets on a skate.

    車はそのスケートに乗って 運ばれます

  • There's no speed limit here,


  • so we're designing this to be able to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.

    時速200kmで運用できるように 設計しています

  • CA: How much?

    (クリス) いくらですって?

  • EM: 200 kilometers an hour, or about 130 miles per hour.

    (イーロン) 時速200km 言い換えると時速130マイルです

  • So you should be able to get from, say, Westwood to LAX

    だから たとえばウエストウッドから ロサンゼルス国際空港まで

  • in six minutes -- five, six minutes.


  • (Applause)


  • CA: So possibly, initially done,

    (クリス) はじめは

  • it's like on a sort of toll road-type basis.

    有料道路みたいに なるんでしょうかね

  • EM: Yeah.

    (イーロン) ええ

  • CA: Which, I guess, alleviates some traffic

    (クリス) そして地上の渋滞も

  • from the surface streets as well.

    ある程度 緩和されると

  • EM: So, I don't know if people noticed it in the video,

    (イーロン) 映像で気付いたかどうか 分かりませんが

  • but there's no real limit to how many levels of tunnel you can have.

    トンネルを何階層作るかについては 実質制限はありません

  • You can go much further deep than you can go up.

    上よりも下の方が 先まで行けるんです

  • The deepest mines are much deeper than the tallest buildings are tall,

    最も高い建物の高さよりも 最も深い鉱山の方がずっと深い

  • so you can alleviate any arbitrary level of urban congestion


  • with a 3D tunnel network.

    どれほどの渋滞だろうと さばくことができます

  • This is a very important point.


  • So a key rebuttal to the tunnels is that if you add one layer of tunnels,

    トンネルのアイデアに対する 主要な反論は

  • that will simply alleviate congestion, it will get used up,

    トンネルを1階層追加して 渋滞が一時緩和されたところで

  • and then you'll be back where you started, back with congestion.

    それが一杯になったら また元の渋滞の状態に戻るということです

  • But you can go to any arbitrary number of tunnels,


  • any number of levels.


  • CA: But people -- seen traditionally, it's incredibly expensive to dig,

    (クリス) しかしトンネルの掘削には とても費用がかかり

  • and that would block this idea.

    それがこのアイデアの障害だと 考えられていますよね

  • EM: Yeah.

    (イーロン) ええ

  • Well, they're right.


  • To give you an example, the LA subway extension,


  • which is -- I think it's a two-and-a-half mile extension

    ロサンゼルス地下鉄を 4km延長するのには

  • that was just completed for two billion dollars.


  • So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile to do the subway extension in LA.

    ロスの地下鉄延長には kmあたり およそ 5億ドルかかっているわけです

  • And this is not the highest utility subway in the world.

    世界で最も利用者数の多い地下鉄 というわけでもありません

  • So yeah, it's quite difficult to dig tunnels normally.

    だから確かにトンネルを掘るというのは 一般に大変なことです

  • I think we need to have at least a tenfold improvement

    長さあたりの トンネル掘削コストを

  • in the cost per mile of tunneling.

    少なくとも10倍は改善しなければ ならないと考えています

  • CA: And how could you achieve that?

    (クリス) どうやって実現するんですか?

  • EM: Actually, if you just do two things,

    (イーロン) 実は2つのことをするだけで

  • you can get to approximately an order of magnitude improvement,

    ほぼ十倍か それ以上の改善が

  • and I think you can go beyond that.


  • So the first thing to do is to cut the tunnel diameter


  • by a factor of two or more.

    半分か それ以下にします

  • So a single road lane tunnel according to regulations


  • has to be 26 feet, maybe 28 feet in diameter

    8mとか8.5m 確保するようにと 規制されています

  • to allow for crashes and emergency vehicles


  • and sufficient ventilation for combustion engine cars.

    ガソリン車の排ガスの 換気などのためです

  • But if you shrink that diameter to what we're attempting,

    私たちはそれを 電気スケートを走らせるのに十分な

  • which is 12 feet, which is plenty to get an electric skate through,


  • you drop the diameter by a factor of two

    そうすると 直径が半分になり

  • and the cross-sectional area by a factor of four,


  • and the tunneling cost scales with the cross-sectional area.

    トンネル掘削のコストは 断面積に比例します

  • So that's roughly a half-order of magnitude improvement right there.

    これで10倍の改善の 半分は達成できます

  • Then tunneling machines currently tunnel for half the time, then they stop,


  • and then the rest of the time is putting in reinforcements


  • for the tunnel wall.

    その間 トンネル壁の 強化をしています

  • So if you design the machine instead


  • to do continuous tunneling and reinforcing,


  • that will give you a factor of two improvement.


  • Combine that and that's a factor of eight.

    この2つを合わせると 8倍の改善です

  • Also these machines are far from being at their power or thermal limits,

    掘削機は そのパワーや熱的な限界には まだまだ達していないので

  • so you can jack up the power to the machine substantially.

    パワーを大きく 引き上げることもできます

  • I think you can get at least a factor of two,


  • maybe a factor of four or five improvement on top of that.

    もしかしたら4、5倍の改善を 上積みできるでしょう

  • So I think there's a fairly straightforward series of steps

    だから一連の ごく単純な手順で

  • to get somewhere in excess of an order of magnitude improvement

    長さ当たりの 掘削コストを

  • in the cost per mile,


  • and our target actually is --

    我々の実際の目標というのは —

  • we've got a pet snail called Gary,

    うちにゲイリーという ペットのカタツムリがいて

  • this is from Gary the snail from "South Park,"

    『サウスパーク』のキャラクターから 取った名前ですが —

  • I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."

    もとい 『スポンジボブ』ですね

  • (Laughter)


  • So Gary is capable of --

    カタツムリのゲイリーは 現在のところ

  • currently he's capable of going 14 times faster


  • than a tunnel-boring machine.


  • (Laughter)


  • CA: You want to beat Gary.

    (クリス) ゲイリーに 勝ちたいわけだ

  • EM: We want to beat Gary.

    (イーロン) 勝ちたいと思っています

  • (Laughter)


  • He's not a patient little fellow,

    ゲイリーは我慢強い チビなんかではないので

  • and that will be victory.


  • Victory is beating the snail.


  • CA: But a lot of people imagining, dreaming about future cities,

    (クリス) 未来の都市というと

  • they imagine that actually the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.

    多くの人は空飛ぶ車とか ドローンとか

  • You go aboveground.


  • Why isn't that a better solution?


  • You save all that tunneling cost.

    トンネルを掘る費用も かかりませんし

  • EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.

    (イーロン) 私も空飛ぶものは好きです

  • Obviously, I do rockets, so I like things that fly.

    ロケットも作ってますし 空飛ぶものはいい

  • This is not some inherent bias against flying things,

    空飛ぶものに抵抗が あるわけではありません

  • but there is a challenge with flying cars

    しかし空飛ぶ車には 難しい問題があって

  • in that they'll be quite noisy,


  • the wind force generated will be very high.


  • Let's just say that if something's flying over your head,

    何かがすぐ頭の上を飛んでいる —

  • a whole bunch of flying cars going all over the place,

    沢山の空飛ぶ車が そこら中を飛び回っているというのは

  • that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.


  • (Laughter)


  • You don't think to yourself, "Well, I feel better about today."

    「今日はすがすがしいな」とは 思わないでしょう

  • You're thinking, "Did they service their hubcap,

    むしろ「ホイールキャップは ちゃんとはまってるのかな?

  • or is it going to come off and guillotine me?"

    落ちてきて首をはねられや しないかしら?」などと

  • Things like that.


  • CA: So you've got this vision

    (クリス) あなたは地下に 大規模な3次元トンネル網がある

  • of future cities with these rich, 3D networks of tunnels underneath.

    未来の都市というビジョンを 持っているわけですね

  • Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?

    ハイパーループとのからみというのは あるんでしょうか?

  • Could you apply these tunnels to use for this Hyperloop idea

    あなたが何年か前に発表した ハイパーループのアイデアに

  • you released a few years ago.


  • EM: Yeah, so we've been sort of puttering around

    (イーロン) 私たちは このハイパーループというのを

  • with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.


  • We built a Hyperloop test track adjacent to SpaceX,

    SpaceXのすぐ横に ハイパーループの試験軌道も作りました

  • just for a student competition,


  • to encourage innovative ideas in transport.


  • And it actually ends up being the biggest vacuum chamber in the world


  • after the Large Hadron Collider,


  • by volume.

    世界で最も大きな 真空チャンバー になりました

  • So it was quite fun to do that, but it was kind of a hobby thing,

    とても楽しい経験でしたが 一種の趣味のようなものです

  • and then we think we might --


  • so we've built a little pusher car to push the student pods,


  • but we're going to try seeing how fast we can make the pusher go

    何も押していないとき どこまで速くできるか

  • if it's not pushing something.


  • So we're cautiously optimistic

    たとえ 1.3kmの 距離だけではあっても

  • we'll be able to be faster than the world's fastest bullet train


  • even in a .8-mile stretch.

    速くできるのではと 思っています

  • CA: Whoa. Good brakes.

    (クリス) そりゃすごいブレーキだ

  • EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.

    (イーロン) 確かに

  • It's either going to smash into tiny pieces or go quite fast.

    衝突してバラバラになるか あるいは—

  • CA: But you can picture, then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel

    (クリス) ハイパーループが トンネルの中を長距離走る姿というのも

  • running quite long distances.


  • EM: Exactly.

    (イーロン) ええ

  • And looking at tunneling technology,


  • it turns out that in order to make a tunnel,


  • you have to --


  • In order to seal against the water table,


  • you've got to typically design a tunnel wall to be good


  • to about five or six atmospheres.

    トンネル壁を設計する 必要があります

  • So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,


  • or near-vacuum.


  • So actually, it sort of turns out that automatically,

    地下水面に耐えられる トンネルを作れば

  • if you build a tunnel that is good enough to resist the water table,


  • it is automatically capable of holding vacuum.

    真空を保つことも できるようになります

  • CA: Huh.

    (クリス) なるほど

  • EM: So, yeah.

    (イーロン) そういうことです

  • CA: And so you could actually picture,

    (クリス) イーロンの未来では

  • what kind of length tunnel is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?

    ハイパーループが走るトンネルの長さは どれくらいになるのでしょう?

  • EM: I think there's no real length limit.

    (イーロン) 実際長さに制限は ないと思います

  • You could dig as much as you want.


  • I think if you were to do something

    例えばワシントンDC - ニューヨーク間の

  • like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,


  • I think you'd probably want to go underground the entire way


  • because it's a high-density area.


  • You're going under a lot of buildings and houses,

    たくさんのビルや家の下を 行くことになりますが

  • and if you go deep enough,


  • you cannot detect the tunnel.

    トンネルの存在に 気付くことはありません

  • Sometimes people think, well, it's going to be pretty annoying

    家の下にトンネルを掘られたら 煩わしいに違いないと

  • to have a tunnel dug under my house.


  • Like, if that tunnel is dug

    トンネルの直径の 3つか4つ分

  • more than about three or four tunnel diameters beneath your house,

    深いところに トンネルが掘られたら

  • you will not be able to detect it being dug at all.


  • In fact, if you're able to detect the tunnel being dug,

    それどころか トンネル掘削を検知できたら

  • whatever device you are using,

    その装置で 大もうけできるでしょう

  • you can get a lot of money for that device from the Israeli military,

    ハマースの掘るトンネルを 見つけようとしている

  • who is trying to detect tunnels from Hamas,


  • and from the US Customs and Border patrol that try and detect drug tunnels.

    麻薬密輸トンネルを見つけようとしている 米国税関・国境警備局が欲しがりますから

  • So the reality is


  • that earth is incredibly good at absorbing vibrations,


  • and once the tunnel depth is below a certain level,

    トンネルが 一定以上の深さであれば

  • it is undetectable.


  • Maybe if you have a very sensitive seismic instrument,


  • you might be able to detect it.


  • CA: So you've started a new company to do this

    (クリス) それで そのための 新しい会社を作ったわけですね

  • called The Boring Company.

    The Boring Company (ボーリング社/退屈な会社)

  • Very nice. Very funny.

    傑作ですね 笑えます

  • (Laughter)


  • EM: What's funny about that?

    (イーロン) 何が可笑しいんだろう?

  • (Laughter)


  • CA: How much of your time is this?

    (クリス) これに どれくらいの時間を 割いているんですか?

  • EM: It's maybe ...

    (イーロン) たぶん

  • two or three percent.

    2〜3%という ところですかね

  • CA: You've bought a hobby.

    (クリス) 趣味を手に入れたと

  • This is what an Elon Musk hobby looks like.

    イーロン・マスクの 趣味はこんなですよ 皆さん

  • (Laughter)


  • EM: I mean, it really is, like --

    (イーロン) インターンや その他の人が

  • This is basically interns and people doing it part time.

    一部の時間を使って やっています

  • We bought some second-hand machinery.


  • It's kind of puttering along, but it's making good progress, so --

    いじくり回している感じですが 結構進展があります

  • CA: So an even bigger part of your time

    (クリス) 多くの時間は

  • is being spent on electrifying cars and transport through Tesla.

    テスラを通じて自動車や交通手段を 電化することに費やされているわけですね

  • Is one of the motivations for the tunneling project

    トンネルプロジェクトの 動機の1つは

  • the realization that actually,


  • in a world where cars are electric and where they're self-driving,


  • there may end up being more cars on the roads


  • on any given hour than there are now?

    溢れることになるかもしれない ということなのでは?

  • EM: Yeah, exactly.

    (イーロン) その通りです

  • A lot of people think that when you make cars autonomous,


  • they'll be able to go faster and that will alleviate congestion.

    速く移動できて渋滞が減ると 多くの人は思っています

  • And to some degree that will be true,


  • but once you have shared autonomy where it's much cheaper to go by car


  • and you can go point to point,

    車での移動は 好きなところに 行ける上 安価になり

  • the affordability of going in a car will be better than that of a bus.

    車の方がバスなんかより 値ごろ感が出てきます

  • Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.

    バス料金よりも 安くなったりとか

  • So the amount of driving that will occur will be much greater with shared autonomy,

    だから共有自律により 車での移動量は はるかに増え

  • and actually traffic will get far worse.

    交通事情は ずっと悪くなるでしょう

  • CA: You started Tesla with the