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  • The situation in the Western Pacific grows more precarious.

  • Muslims have taken over some territory in the Philippines.

  • Martial law has been declared in those areas.

  • The Philippinespresident, Duterte, has offered to resign if he can’t keep the peace.

  • For a long time, the Filipino people have wanted respect as a sovereign nation,

  • hungering for that respect as much as China if not more.

  • This has led the Philippines to diminish ties with other nations, including the US, and warm up to China.

  • Sun Tzu might advise that any form of hunger can be exploited as a weakness, including hunger for respect.

  • Now, an extreme sect of Muslims have interrupted the sovereign work of the Filipino government.

  • If any forces lack respect in the Pacific and undermine rule of law, the US is not the foremost among them.

  • The current security arrangement in the Philippines has failed to keep law and order.

  • Duterte’s policies are being put to the test.

  • If he can’t regain control, then both China and the US will step-up their presences.

  • Northern Korea is already stepping up its game, now with rumors of anti-aircraft missiles.

  • The US has sent yet another strike force to Korean waters.

  • China knows the US is the best hope to end the mess on the peninsula,

  • whether in terms of finances, diplomatic affinities, or strength of arms.

  • Importantly, the Western press is mounting a well-published case against the Kim regime

  • comparable to the case the W. Bush administration mounted against Saddam Hussein.

  • In the South Sea, Trump sent his firstsail-bythrough China’s man-made islands.

  • US threats to blockade the artificial island militarized bases are not empty threats, not in the least.

  • Nor is China’s threat to declare war if the US follows-through.

  • Trump is going to need to act on North Korea while still on friendly terms with China.

  • Both China and the US know this.

  • With these islands, China and the US can’t playlet’s be friendsforever.

  • The problem of the artificial islets in the South Sea will compel quicker US action on the Korean Peninsula.

  • The majority argument, however, will go to the international view.

  • If China’s military presence in the South Sea is benign,

  • why didn’t China demonstrate respect and stop Muslims from disrupting the China-friendly Filipino government?

  • That’s the question the Western taxpayers will ask, anyhow.

  • The West will have gone to much trouble and will pin China as the perpetrator.

  • But, there is another part of Western Pacific strategy to consider.

  • When the Korean peninsula is united, all those US troops in Southern Korea will be able to point their guns elsewhere.

  • With the US beingthe liberator”, the soon-to-be united Korea will not want to side with the People’s Liberation Army of China.

  • China isn’t foolish; theyve thought about that.

  • Moving on the Koreas will make moving on the South Sea more feasible, from the US military’s perspective.

  • China knows that someone must move on the Koreas and thatsomeonecan only be the US.

  • After that, islets in the South Sea can quickly be taken and turned against China.

  • With Muslims disturbing the Philippines, Duterteor whoever is president at the timemay suddenly

  • turn away the Chinese for not helping enough and welcome cooperation with the US.

  • But, if not, the Philippines would collapse if they abandon the mess at home to help China keep the South Sea.

  • Then, the spearhead aims at Taiwan like Saruman marching against the Shire.

  • Two times this weekend, in both north and south of Taiwan, a train hit a person on the tracks.

  • It’s a string of freak accidents that almost seems poetic, but with no explainable meaning as of yet.

  • Moreover, an outspoken DPP associate, Lee Ming-che, is still being detained in China

  • with no statement on which law in particular he violated.

  • China’s situation is difficult and complex,

  • even though the West will tend to take the easy road and villainize China.

  • Beijing needs to retain domestic control.

  • This is all the more evidenced by the situation in the Philippines.

  • Lee is a disturbance, even if his cause is good.

  • China doesn’t see the world in terms of values and ideologies, but in terms of maintaining power in order to maintain peace.

  • Muslims are at China’s doorstep, not only in the Philippines, but also in Malaysia.

  • This is no time for Lee to be stirring up trouble.

  • But, in the eyes of the evermore compassion-driven West, by detaining Lee after speaking out on matters of Human Rights,

  • China is only trying to silence a whistle-blower for blowing the whistle on them.

  • As with the anti-China press war that began in Hong Kong, the Taiwan question comes into play,

  • affecting public image as much as military strategy.

  • Both China and Taiwan have some hypocrisy in the Lee situation.

  • China claims Taiwan as its own territorythough claiming North Korea might be more tenable,

  • more affordable, more militarily advantageous, and result in more peace.

  • China certainly has paid the bills in Northern Korea.

  • Taiwan is an island already surrounded by Western allies and is about to be surrounded by even more.

  • Militarily, China’s claim to Taiwan is not strategic, it is about something else.

  • By China claiming Taiwan, Taiwanese have a vested interest in Human Rights issues in China.

  • On the other hand, the DPP, the political party of Taiwan’s freshman president,

  • a political party which Lee is affiliated with, claims that Taiwan is independent.

  • This should mean that the DPP thinks that Taiwandoesn’t have a dog in that fight

  • where Human Rights are concerned in China.

  • They want to be independent, yet they also worry about the goings on in China as if they are family.

  • The DPP makes it seem as if they want to have their cake and eat it too.

  • So, everyone is right, and wrongit depends on who you ask.

  • Eventually, push will come to shove and all the houses of cards in the Western Pacific will crash.

  • If Russia intervenes then they might as well surrender Syria to the States.

  • So, theRuskiesaren’t likely to tip any balances.

  • Besides, they would rather bide their time, let China do their bidding, and let the US grow weary.

  • Based on both push and advantage for action in Korea just before action in the South Sea,

  • China could find itself in a checkmate in three moves.

  • Then, well see if thatbromancebetween Trump and Xi was all it was chalked up to be.

The situation in the Western Pacific grows more precarious.

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ケイデンス社説。2017年5月29日|シンフォニー (Cadence Editorial: May 29, 2017 | Symphony)

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    Jesse Steele に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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