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The big question surrounding the time of North Korea’s end will be logistics.
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It won’t be about tactics or the “most diplomatic-surgical way” to end the volatile
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regime.
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While the scene is that of the super villain who has strapped himself into a chair, booby-trapped
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with trip wires and armed with explosives, even more important things are going on.
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Large-scale powers don’t think about micro-tactics, they think about logistics.
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And, logistics are shaping-up.
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Social energy is one important logistic.
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The people of nations involved must see a viable path to support certain action.
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Navies in the region are burning up tax dollars, something that can’t continue forever.
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Taiwan is itching for recognition in the world and the world itches for Taiwan to be recognized—and
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Taiwan is making much more progress than in years past.
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Then, there is trust.
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From a PR perspective, China is failing.
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But, from a spying perspective, China has turf to defend.
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China’s isolationist policies may seem anti-free speech to the West, but China sees spies to
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catch and leaks to plug.
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Trump doesn’t like leaks either.
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Spies are dangerous.
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China is willing to kill them while Americans publicly oppose executions while secretly
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wishing the deaths of their daily enemies.
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China’s execution and imprisonment of CIA spies caught during the Obama years is very
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understandable.
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But, the American public won’t see it that way.
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This week, a huge ramp went up to alert the public to “news” that is anything but.
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China caught and executed CIA spies long ago.
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It didn’t matter until now, when social support is an important calculation with logistics
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of war.
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That explains the Pentagon statements and the newspaper trends in America as well as
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Europe and Australia.
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The Western public is being rallied against China.
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That is significant.
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Then, there is China’s image with the Koreas.
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China won’t be too hard on North Korea.
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China is banning South Korean travel because it doesn’t like the US presence in South
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Korea.
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That’s understandable, but not to the pop star fans in South Korea or the United States.
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When South Korean pop stars tour the US, more young people in the US will become aware of
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the issues.
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China could have stopped it, but Beijing still struggles to understand the Western mind.
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The Korean pop star fans in China might start struggling to understand Beijing’s mind,
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at least more than in the past.
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When you turn people away, they don’t just go home, the go elsewhere.
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That’s not easy to comprehend when you’ve always gotten what you want and always been
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told what to want to hear.
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Whatever China’s problems are or are not, the travel bans make China look worse than
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it deserves.
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The real crime was the Shakespearian “fatal flaw”: China didn’t understand the West
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well enough.
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In a world of growing alliances between sovereign nations, that is an unforgivable sin as far
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as gravity is concerned.
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And, with gravity, mercy is too lacking and pain always greater than it should be.
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But, all is fair in love and in war.