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  • The global economic financial crisis has reignited public interest

    翻訳: Tomomi Anzai 校正: Emi Kamiya

  • in something that's actually one of the oldest questions in economics,

    世界的な金融危機を受けて また関心を集めていることがあります

  • dating back to at least before Adam Smith.

    経済学においては最も古く 少なくとも ―

  • And that is, why is it that countries with seemingly similar economies and institutions


  • can display radically different savings behavior?

    「経済活動や制度が類似する国々で 貯蓄行動が大いに異なるのは何故か」

  • Now, many brilliant economists have spent their entire lives working on this question,

    「経済活動や制度が類似する国々で 貯蓄行動が大いに異なるのは何故か」

  • and as a field we've made a tremendous amount of headway

    聡明な経済学者たちが一生をかけ 答えを追求してきました

  • and we understand a lot about this.

    その甲斐あって 議論は大きく前進してきましたし

  • What I'm here to talk with you about today is an intriguing new hypothesis


  • and some surprisingly powerful new findings that I've been working on

    今日ご紹介するのは 私が研究している新たな仮説と

  • about the link between the structure of the language you speak

    言語の構造と 貯蓄傾向の関連性についての

  • and how you find yourself with the propensity to save.

    言語の構造と 貯蓄傾向の関連性についての

  • Let me tell you a little bit about savings rates, a little bit about language,


  • and then I'll draw that connection.

    貯蓄率や言語について 簡単に説明した後

  • Let's start by thinking about the member countries of the OECD,

    その 関連性を紐解いていきます

  • or the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

    まずは OECD 経済協力開発機構の ―

  • OECD countries, by and large, you should think about these


  • as the richest, most industrialized countries in the world.

    OECD諸国は概して 裕福な先進工業国と言えるでしょう

  • And by joining the OECD, they were affirming a common commitment

    OECD諸国は概して 裕福な先進工業国と言えるでしょう

  • to democracy, open markets and free trade.

    また OECDに加盟する以上 民主主義や自由市場 ―

  • Despite all of these similarities, we see huge differences in savings behavior.

    自由貿易に取り組むという 意思を表明しています

  • So all the way over on the left of this graph,

    こうした共通点はありますが 貯蓄傾向は大きく異なっています

  • what you see is many OECD countries saving over a quarter of their GDP every year,


  • and some OECD countries saving over a third of their GDP per year.

    多くのOECD諸国では毎年 GDPの4分の1以上を貯蓄しています

  • Holding down the right flank of the OECD, all the way on the other side, is Greece.

    3分の1以上を 貯蓄に回している国もあります

  • And what you can see is that over the last 25 years,

    反対側を見ていくと 右端はギリシャです

  • Greece has barely managed to save more than 10 percent of their GDP.

    ここ25年以上 ギリシャの貯蓄率は

  • It should be noted, of course, that the United States and the U.K. are the next in line.

    辛うじてGDPの10%を越える程度で 推移してます

  • Now that we see these huge differences in savings rates,

    もちろんアメリカとイギリスが そのすぐ隣にいることも見逃せません

  • how is it possible that language might have something to do with these differences?

    さて こうした貯蓄率における違いに

  • Let me tell you a little bit about how languages fundamentally differ.

    言語が関係している可能性が あるのでしょうか

  • Linguists and cognitive scientists have been exploring this question for many years now.

    言語間には根本的な相違があり ―

  • And then I'll draw the connection between these two behaviors.

    その相違点について 言語学者や 認知科学者が研究を重ねてきました

  • Many of you have probably already noticed that I'm Chinese.

    このことが後で貯蓄の話に 関連してきます

  • I grew up in the Midwest of the United States.

    お気づきかと思いますが 私は中国人です

  • And something I realized quite early on


  • was that the Chinese language forced me to speak about and --

    幼少期に あることに気付いたんです

  • in fact, more fundamentally than that --


  • ever so slightly forced me to think about family in very different ways.


  • Now, how might that be? Let me give you an example.


  • Suppose I were talking with you and I was introducing you to my uncle.


  • You understood exactly what I just said in English.

    例えば 皆さんを私の「おじ」に 紹介するとしましょう

  • If we were speaking Mandarin Chinese with each other, though,

    英語では "uncle" で 問題ありませんね

  • I wouldn't have that luxury.

    しかし これが中国語だと

  • I wouldn't have been able to convey so little information.


  • What my language would have forced me to do,


  • instead of just telling you, "This is my uncle,"


  • is to tell you a tremendous amount of additional information.


  • My language would force me to tell you


  • whether or not this was an uncle on my mother's side or my father's side,


  • whether this was an uncle by marriage or by birth,

    それが母方なのか 父方なのか

  • and if this man was my father's brother,

    血縁なのか 姻戚なのか

  • whether he was older than or younger than my father.


  • All of this information is obligatory. Chinese doesn't let me ignore it.

    父の兄なのか 弟なのか

  • And in fact, if I want to speak correctly,

    これらは全て中国語では 無視できない必須項目です

  • Chinese forces me to constantly think about it.


  • Now, that fascinated me endlessly as a child,

    このような事を 考えざるを得ないのです

  • but what fascinates me even more today as an economist

    私はこういうことで 延々と楽しめる子でしたが

  • is that some of these same differences carry through to how languages speak about time.

    今日 経済学者として 私が心をつかまれるのは

  • So for example, if I'm speaking in English, I have to speak grammatically differently

    「時」についても 言語間で同様の相違があるという点です

  • if I'm talking about past rain, "It rained yesterday,"

    例えば 英語を話す場合には 文法に違いが出ます

  • current rain, "It is raining now,"

    過去なら "It rained yesterday"

  • or future rain, "It will rain tomorrow."

    現在ならば "It is raining now"

  • Notice that English requires a lot more information with respect to the timing of events.

    未来は "It will rain tomorrow"

  • Why? Because I have to consider that

    英語では事象のタイミングについて 情報が不可欠です

  • and I have to modify what I'm saying to say, "It will rain," or "It's going to rain."


  • It's simply not permissible in English to say, "It rain tomorrow."


  • In contrast to that, that's almost exactly what you would say in Chinese.

    "It rain tomorrow" は 英語では許されません

  • A Chinese speaker can basically say something

    ところが中国語では それでいいのです

  • that sounds very strange to an English speaker's ears.


  • They can say, "Yesterday it rain," "Now it rain," "Tomorrow it rain."


  • In some deep sense, Chinese doesn't divide up the time spectrum

    過去でも現在でも未来でも "It rain" と言って構いません

  • in the same way that English forces us to constantly do in order to speak correctly.

    つまり中国語には 英語のような時制の区切りがないのです

  • Is this difference in languages

    つまり中国語には 英語のような時制の区切りがないのです

  • only between very, very distantly related languages, like English and Chinese?

    英語と中国語の関係が 特別に薄いせいでしょうか?

  • Actually, no.

    英語と中国語の関係が 特別に薄いせいでしょうか?

  • So many of you know, in this room, that English is a Germanic language.


  • What you may not have realized is that English is actually an outlier.

    ご存じのとおり 英語はゲルマン語派ですが

  • It is the only Germanic language that requires this.


  • For example, most other Germanic language speakers

    ゲルマン語派で時制があるのは 英語だけです

  • feel completely comfortable talking about rain tomorrow


  • by saying, "Morgen regnet es,"

    明日の雨について "Morgen regnet es" つまり ―

  • quite literally to an English ear, "It rain tomorrow."

    明日の雨について "Morgen regnet es" つまり ―

  • This led me, as a behavioral economist, to an intriguing hypothesis.

    "It rain tomorrow" と言って 差し支えありません

  • Could how you speak about time, could how your language forces you to think about time,

    行動経済学者である私は ある面白い仮説を思いつきました

  • affect your propensity to behave across time?

    「時」についての捉え方や 言語的な制約が

  • You speak English, a futured language.

    いつの間にか 行動傾向にも 影響しているのではないか?

  • And what that means is that every time you discuss the future,


  • or any kind of a future event,

    皆さんが英語で 将来について話す場合には

  • grammatically you're forced to cleave that from the present

    皆さんが英語で 将来について話す場合には

  • and treat it as if it's something viscerally different.


  • Now suppose that that visceral difference


  • makes you subtly dissociate the future from the present every time you speak.


  • If that's true and it makes the future feel

    英語を使うたびに 現在と将来を切り離していくとすると

  • like something more distant and more different from the present,


  • that's going to make it harder to save.


  • If, on the other hand, you speak a futureless language,


  • the present and the future, you speak about them identically.


  • If that subtly nudges you to feel about them identically,


  • that's going to make it easier to save.


  • Now this is a fanciful theory.


  • I'm a professor, I get paid to have fanciful theories.


  • But how would you actually go about testing such a theory?

    私は大学教授なので これも仕事のうちです

  • Well, what I did with that was to access the linguistics literature.


  • And interestingly enough, there are pockets of futureless language speakers


  • situated all over the world.

    面白いことに 世界には 未来形のない言語を話す地域が

  • This is a pocket of futureless language speakers in Northern Europe.


  • Interestingly enough, when you start to crank the data,

    北欧のこの地域の言語には 未来の概念がありません

  • these pockets of futureless language speakers all around the world

    面白いことに データを見ていくと

  • turn out to be, by and large, some of the world's best savers.


  • Just to give you a hint of that,

    高額の貯蓄を持つ人々が ほぼ一致することがわかりました

  • let's look back at that OECD graph that we were talking about.


  • What you see is that these bars are systematically taller

    先程のOECDのグラフに 戻りましょう

  • and systematically shifted to the left

    貯蓄率の高い国は体系的に 左に寄っています

  • compared to these bars which are the members of the OECD that speak futured languages.

    貯蓄率の高い国は体系的に 左に寄っています

  • What is the average difference here?

    未来形のある言語を話す国と 比べると こうです

  • Five percentage points of your GDP saved per year.


  • Over 25 years that has huge long-run effects on the wealth of your nation.

    貯蓄率の違いは 年間でGDPの5%ずつなので

  • Now while these findings are suggestive,

    25年経てば国の資産に 莫大な影響を与えることになります

  • countries can be different in so many different ways


  • that it's very, very difficult sometimes to account for all of these possible differences.


  • What I'm going to show you, though, is something that I've been engaging in for a year,

    内容が多岐に渡りますから 一概には言えません

  • which is trying to gather all of the largest datasets

    そこで 私がここ1年 研究してきたことをご紹介します

  • that we have access to as economists,

    経済学者の持てる ありとあらゆるデータを駆使し

  • and I'm going to try and strip away all of those possible differences,

    経済学者の持てる ありとあらゆるデータを駆使し

  • hoping to get this relationship to break.


  • And just in summary, no matter how far I push this, I can't get it to break.


  • Let me show you how far you can do that.

    結論から言って 相関を認めざるを得ません

  • One way to imagine that is I gather large datasets from around the world.


  • So for example, there is the Survey of Health, [Aging] and Retirement in Europe.

    たとえば世界中から 大量のデータを集めます

  • From this dataset you actually learn that retired European families

    「欧州における 健康・加齢・退職の調査」を見ると

  • are extremely patient with survey takers.

    ヨーロッパの退職者世帯は このような調査に対し ―

  • (Laughter)


  • So imagine that you're a retired household in Belgium and someone comes to your front door.


  • "Excuse me, would you mind if I peruse your stock portfolio?

    退職してベルギーに家を構えたとします 誰かが訪ねてきて

  • Do you happen to know how much your house is worth? Do you mind telling me?

    「すみません 持ち株の明細を見せてもらえませんか?

  • Would you happen to have a hallway that's more than 10 meters long?

    お宅の価格をご存じですか? 教えてもらえます?

  • If you do, would you mind if I timed how long it took you to walk down that hallway?


  • Would you mind squeezing as hard as you can, in your dominant hand, this device

    その廊下をあなたが何秒で歩くか 計ってもいいですか?

  • so I can measure your grip strength?

    利き手でこの装置を思いっきり 握ってもらえますか?

  • How about blowing into this tube so I can measure your lung capacity?"


  • The survey takes over a day.

    このチューブに息を吹き込んでください 肺活量を測ります」

  • (Laughter)


  • Combine that with a Demographic and Health Survey


  • collected by USAID in developing countries in Africa, for example,

    さらにUSAIDによる アフリカの途上国の ―

  • which that survey actually can go so far as to directly measure the HIV status


  • of families living in, for example, rural Nigeria.

    たとえばナイジェリアの 農村部の世帯のHIV感染状況まで

  • Combine that with a world value survey,


  • which measures the political opinions and, fortunately for me, the savings behaviors


  • of millions of families in hundreds of countries around the world.

    世界のあらゆる国で 何百万もの世帯の政治的見解や ―

  • Take all of that data, combine it, and this map is what you get.

    ラッキーなことに貯蓄行動まで 調べてある資料です

  • What you find is nine countries around the world

    そうしたデータを全て組み合わせると こうなります

  • that have significant native populations

    ご覧の9カ国では ―

  • which speak both futureless and futured languages.

    未来形のある言語とない言語 その両方が使われています

  • And what I'm going to do is form statistical matched pairs

    未来形のある言語とない言語 その両方が使われています

  • between families that are nearly identical on every dimension that I can measure,

    ここから 評価が可能な条件について

  • and then I'm going to explore whether or not the link between language and savings holds

    類似するデータを組み合わせて 統計分析のためにペアを作ります

  • even after controlling for all of these levels.

    条件を揃えた上で 言語と貯蓄率の間に

  • What are the characteristics we can control for?

    関連性があるかどうか 調べるというわけです

  • Well I'm going to match families on country of birth and residence,


  • the demographics -- what sex, their age --


  • their income level within their own country,


  • their educational achievement, a lot about their family structure.


  • It turns out there are six different ways to be married in Europe.


  • And most granularly, I break them down by religion

    欧州では結婚の形態だけで 6種類もありますから

  • where there are 72 categories of religions in the world --

    さらに 宗教によって細分化しました

  • so an extreme level of granularity.


  • There are 1.4 billion different ways that a family can find itself.


  • Now effectively everything I'm going to tell you from now on

    世帯ごとの属性は 全部で14億種類に分類されます

  • is only comparing these basically nearly identical families.

    ここでは 特性が類似する世帯を抽出し

  • It's getting as close as possible to the thought experiment


  • of finding two families both of whom live in Brussels


  • who are identical on every single one of these dimensions,

    言語以外の属性が全て共通する ―

  • but one of whom speaks Flemish and one of whom speaks French;


  • or two families that live in a rural district in Nigeria,

    一方はフレミッシュ語 他方はフランス語

  • one of whom speaks Hausa and one of whom speaks Igbo.

    あるいはナイジェリアの 農村部の2世帯で

  • Now even after all of this granular level of control,

    一方はハウサ語 他方はイボ語という具合です

  • do futureless language speakers seem to save more?

    このように細かく条件を絞り込んで 分析した場合

  • Yes, futureless language speakers, even after this level of control,

    未来形のない言語話者の方が 貯蓄が多いか?

  • are 30 percent more likely to report having saved in any given year.

    その通り 任意の年に 「貯蓄した」と回答する確率は

  • Does this have cumulative effects?

    未来形のない言語を話す人の方が 30%高いのです

  • Yes, by the time they retire, futureless language speakers, holding constant their income,


  • are going to retire with 25 percent more in savings.

    未来形のない言語を話す人々は 退職までに所得を継続的に貯蓄し

  • Can we push this data even further?

    退職時点での貯蓄は 25%多くなっています

  • Yes, because I just told you, we actually collect a lot of health data as economists.


  • Now how can we think about health behaviors to think about savings?

    せっかく健康に関するデータが 手元にありますから

  • Well, think about smoking, for example.

    貯蓄のことを念頭において 健康面でどうしているか

  • Smoking is in some deep sense negative savings.


  • If savings is current pain in exchange for future pleasure,

    喫煙は ある意味 マイナスの貯蓄です

  • smoking is just the opposite.

    貯蓄は「将来の喜び」と引き換えの 「現在の苦しみ」

  • It's current pleasure in exchange for future pain.


  • What we should expect then is the opposite effect.

    「将来の苦しみ」に変わる 「現在の喜び」

  • And that's exactly what we find.

    それなら 効果も逆になりそうですよね

  • Futureless language speakers are 20 to 24 percent less likely


  • to be smoking at any given point in time compared to identical families,

    未来形のない言語を話す人は そうでない人と比べ

  • and they're going to be 13 to 17 percent less likely

    どの時期においても約20~24% 喫煙率が低く

  • to be obese by the time they retire,


  • and they're going to report being 21 percent more likely


  • to have used a condom in their last sexual encounter.

    最近のセックスでコンドームを 使った割合は21%高いという結果でした

  • I could go on and on with the list of differences that you can find.

    最近のセックスでコンドームを 使った割合は21%高いという結果でした

  • It's almost impossible not to find a savings behavior

    こうした数値的な差は 枚挙に暇がありません

  • for which this strong effect isn't present.

    強い統計的効果なくして 貯蓄行動なしと言っても

  • My linguistics and economics colleagues at Yale and I are just starting to do this work


  • and really explore and understand the ways that these subtle nudges

    言語学者で経済学者でもある イェール大学の仲間と共に

  • cause us to think more or less about the future every single time we speak.

    言語を使うたび 将来の捉え方に 知らず知らずのうちに影響を及ぼす ―

  • Ultimately, the goal,

    その仕組みを解明すべく 本格的に研究を始めました

  • once we understand how these subtle effects can change our decision making,


  • we want to be able to provide people tools

    小さな効果の積み重ねが 意思決定を変える仕組みを解明し

  • so that they can consciously make themselves better savers


  • and more conscious investors in their own future.

    将来に向け 有効な投資ができるよう

  • Thank you very much.

    役に立つツールを 提供したいと考えています

  • (Applause)


The global economic financial crisis has reignited public interest

翻訳: Tomomi Anzai 校正: Emi Kamiya


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A2 初級 日本語 TED 貯蓄 言語 英語 未来 世帯

TED】Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money?(Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money?) (【TED】Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money? (Keith Chen: Could your language affect you

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