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  • Global migration is a pervasive reality. We have more migrants than ever in history. We

  • even have more migrants as a percentage of the world population just creeping up to about

  • three plus percent of the world population are people who live outside of their country

  • of origin. Theyre ex pats, economic migrants, whatever you want to call them. And that’s

  • three percent of a much larger world population than was the case in 1950, right. Were

  • approaching a world of seven-and-a-half, eight billion people more than three percent of

  • whom are now migrants. So that’s nearly 300 million people who are living outside

  • their country of origin who may be temporary. They may be permanent. I believe that this

  • global migrant hoard if you will is always chasing the supply chain, always chasing jobs,

  • always chasing a better life, always chasing good cities to live in. And in fact, most

  • places in the world are reducing the barriers to entry for migrants. In 2015 Europe let

  • in one million migrants, right, particularly political refugees from the Middle East. Now

  • theyre talking about some limited migration controls from the Middle East and within their

  • own territories across European borders. This is a very limited process because European

  • countries are of course largely open to each other and generally very integrated. Their

  • supply chains, their economies are very, very interdependent. But even if Europe were to

  • impose very strict migration restrictions that does not tell us about the global picture.

  • The same year, 2015, ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is ten countries

  • and 700 million people which is greater than the population of Europe passed an ASEAN economic

  • community and ratified a treaty to allow the free mobility of labor across its countries.

  • So even if in one year 600 million people in Europe decided they want to limit mobility

  • the same year 700 million people in Asia decided they want to increase mobility. So only from

  • a totally Eurocentric standpoint are walls going up and migration becomes more difficult.

  • That’s not actually what is happening on a worldwide basis. In fact were going into

  • a period that I describe as a great demographic dilution, even a genetic dilution. There is

  • so much more intermingling of different ethnic populations happening around the world that

  • there are very few countries left that you could even define as nation states. Traditionally

  • we think of a nation state as a country where 85 or 90 percent of the population belongs

  • to the same ethnic group. The number of nation states is declining because

  • more and more countries are becoming more ethnically diverse. Even in Europe where the

  • idea of the nation state really began in the Middle Ages and into the modern nation states

  • of Western Europe today there you see a growing percentage of migrants and therefore those

  • countries are no longer even nation states. So in fact, we have this genetic intermingling

  • and we see this particularly in global cities that are melting pots. Places like Singapore

  • or Hong Kong or Dubai or Toronto or London. Places where the foreign born percentage of

  • the population, maybe 40 percent, 50 percent. In the case of Dubai even 85 or 90 percent

  • of the residents actually don’t come from that place. And so we see literally mingling

  • of ethnicities, mixed birth children and this mingling of populations that has never taken

  • place before at this rapid rate. So yes, populism is a feature of our politics. There is a backlash

  • against immigration to some degree in quite a few places. But the global picture is one

  • of more mass migration and integration across societies.

  • It is very important for us to not be deterministic about geography and instead to always take

  • into account the layer of connectivity on top of geography and the impact that has.

  • In other words the relationship between political geography which is our nations and boundaries

  • and political barriers and functional geography which are the connections that we build across

  • those boundaries. Do understand the relationship between any two countries you have to take

  • into account not just the political boundary but the infrastructural connectivity. The

  • obvious example is the United States and Mexico. It may be the case hypothetically that one

  • day if some particular person were to become president of the United States he may wish

  • to erect some kind of a wall on the border between the two countries which might have

  • the impact of reducing the inflow into America of a very small number of illegal migrants

  • into the country.

  • Does that tell you everything you need to know about U.S.-Mexico relations? Not by a

  • long shot. In fact U.S.-Mexico relations consist of the following. It is one of the world’s

  • two or three most heavily legally transited borders with hundreds of thousands of people

  • moving across every single day. It is one of the largest trade relationships in the

  • world with more than several hundred billion dollars of annual trade every single year.

  • It is two countries that are massively investing in each other’s economies, particularly

  • the United States now investing more and more in the Mexican energy supply, in the Mexican

  • energy sector, in the Mexican automotive sector. And of course there are still very large amounts

  • of demographic and ideational and communications and electronics flows that are happening between

  • the two countries all the time. That is U.S.-Mexico relations, not whether or not there is a wall

  • or not a wall on the border. So if you multiply that by every single border in the world you

  • start to understand that there is so much more connectivity between countries than there

  • is division.

  • And that’s just if were talking about countries that border each other. But only

  • 25 percent of world trade is between countries that share a border. Seventy-five percent

  • of world trade is between countries that are not physically connected to each other at

  • all. There is obviously lots of connectivity between all of our societies. Otherwise how

  • would 75 percent of our world trade be taking place at all? And in fact, the value of world

  • trade in services, things that we zap rather than ship is now more valuable than the trade

  • in goods, things that we physically put in containers and ship. And so if you think about

  • the full almost total digital connectivity that is encompassing the world with the rapid

  • spread of mobile communications and the internet the more you realize that even if you can’t

  • physical see the connectivity it is such an intimate part of our lives and our economy.

  • We know that throughout history the great thriving commercial and even political centers

  • of the world have been open, diverse, tolerant melting pots. Ancient Greece was like this.

  • The Roman Empire was like this. The Ottoman Empire was a very diverse empire. The great

  • trading centers of European history, particularly Amsterdam were very diverse and inclusive.

  • London during the British Empire welcomed in people from all across the commonwealth.

  • And today the great global cities of the world such as New York or Los Angeles or London

  • or Dubai or Singapore are all very diverse cities. In an age where we pride cities on

  • being thriving and creative and innovative and having services as a dominant part of

  • their economy those sources of dynamism come from being tolerant and open to immigration.

  • So we find a real correlation between the great cities in the world, the desirable places

  • to live and their openness to immigration and talent and diversity. And I think that’s

  • something to celebrate.

Global migration is a pervasive reality. We have more migrants than ever in history. We

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B1 中級

グローバル移民101、パラグ・カーンナと (Global Immigration 101, with Parag Khanna)

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    richardwang に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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