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  • I'm going to ask you three multiple choice questions. Use this device. Use this device to answer.

    翻訳: Yasushi Aoki 校正: Mari Arimitsu

  • The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster,

    (ハンス・ロスリング) 皆さんに 3つの3択問題に答えてもらいます

  • how did that change during the last century?

    (ハンス・ロスリング) 皆さんに 3つの3択問題に答えてもらいます

  • Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half?

    この装置を使って 答えてください

  • Please answer A, B or C.

    第1問は「自然災害による 1年あたりの死者数は

  • I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities.

    第1問は「自然災害による 1年あたりの死者数は

  • They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking.

    20世紀を通じて どれくらい変わったか?」です

  • Oh, very, very good.

    20世紀を通じて どれくらい変わったか?」です

  • And we go to the next question.

    (A) 倍になった

  • So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years?

    (B) 世界全体では ほとんど変わっていない

  • A, B or C? Please answer.

    (C) 半数以下になった

  • And we go to the next question.

    ABCで答えてください

  • In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change?

    答えが集まっています 大学でやった時よりずっと早いですね

  • Extreme povertynot having enough food for the day.

    学生は遅いです ずっと考え続けています

  • Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve?

    大変結構

  • A, B or C?

    では次の問題に行きましょう

  • Now, answers.

    「30歳の女性が 学校に通った年数は

  • You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000.

    世界平均で何年か?」

  • In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters

    (A)7年 (B)5年 (C)3年

  • Floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?

    AかBかCか? さあ答えて

  • Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered.

    次の問題です

  • The Swedish public answered like this:

    「世界で極貧生活を 送る人の割合は

  • Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it's more or less the same, 12 said it had halved.

    この20年で どれほど変わったか?」

  • This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down

    この20年で どれほど変わったか?」

  • And it goes to the Second World War

    極貧というのは 日々の食事にも事欠くということです

  • And after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it's down to much less than half.

    (A) 約2倍

  • The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know.

    (B) ほとんど変わらない

  • So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

    (C) 半分になった

  • So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps.

    AかBかCか?

  • (Laughter) (Applause)

    では解答です

  • The chimps don't watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random

    これは

  • So the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do?

    1900年から2000年までの

  • That's you. You were beaten by the chimps.

    自然災害による

  • But it was close.

    死者数のグラフです

  • You were three times better than the Swedes, but that's not enough.

    1900年には 自然災害のため

  • You shouldn't compare yourself to Swedes.

    年に50万人くらいが 死んでいました

  • You must have higher ambitions in the world.

    洪水 地震 火山噴火 干ばつ 等々

  • Let's look at the next answer here: women in school.

    それがどう変わったのか

  • Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school?

    ギャップマインダー財団は スウェーデンで

  • Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn't it?

    一般の人にアンケートを 取りました

  • The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn't it? (Laughter)

    スウェーデン人の答えです

  • Let's see, let's see. Here we come.

    50%が2倍

  • Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up.

    38%がほぼ同じ

  • This is the U.S. public. And this is you.

    12%が半分 という解答でした

  • Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations

    こちらは災害研究者による 実際のデータです

  • You're twice as good as the Swedes, but you don't need me

    上下していますが

  • So how come?

    第二次世界大戦後に 下がり始め

  • I think it's like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties.

    ずっと下がり続けて

  • They are stopped when they go to school, and it's disgusting.

    半分よりもずっと 少なくなっています

  • But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live,

    この数十年で 世界は —

  • most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less.

    ずっと良く 災害から人々を

  • That doesn't mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all.

    守れるように なったんです

  • They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today.

    スウェーデンで正しく答えたのは たったの12%です

  • Now, we miss the majority.

    それで動物園に行って チンパンジーにも聞いてみました

  • When you answer, you answer according to the worst places

    (笑) (拍手)

  • And there you are right, but you miss the majority.

    チンパンジーは 夜のニュースなど見ず

  • What about poverty?

    ランダムに答えます

  • Well, it's very clear that poverty here was almost halved

    スウェーデン人は ランダムな答えよりも駄目なんです

  • And in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right.

    皆さんはどうでしょう?

  • And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps.

    これが皆さんの答えです

  • (Laughter) (Applause)

    チンパンジーに 負けてるじゃないですか!

  • That little, just a few of you!

    (笑)

  • There must be preconceived ideas, you know.

    でもいい勝負です

  • And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty.

    スウェーデン人よりは 3倍良いですが

  • Of course they think so, because they don't even know what has happened.

    十分じゃありません

  • The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.

    スウェーデン人なんかと 比べてちゃいけません

  • These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run

    もっと高いところを 狙わないと

  • And it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling.

    次の解答です 女子の就学年数について

  • He's cofounder and director, and he wanted,

    男子は8年です

  • Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance.

    女子は何年 学校に通うでしょう?

  • So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random

    スウェーデン人の答えは こうでした

  • So we have to think about preconceived ideas

    これはヒントになりますね

  • And one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.

    正しい答えはきっと

  • Look here. This is how it was in 1975.

    スウェーデン人が 選ばなかったやつでしょう

  • It's the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day

    (笑)

  • See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day,

    見てみましょう

  • And then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars.

    ほらほら 女子は ほとんど男子と並んでいます

  • The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps

    こちらはアメリカ人の答え

  • The poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.

    これが皆さん

  • But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed,

    ほう やりましたね

  • the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge.

    スウェーデン人よりは 倍マシですが

  • The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only.

    それは良いことを 意味しません

  • The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it's appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty.

    どうしてこんな結果に なったんでしょう?

  • We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.

    世界には女性が 虐げられている —

  • The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is,

    国や地域があるのを

  • And that is very clearly shown in this question.

    みんな知っています

  • We asked, what is the percentage of the world's one-year-old children

    学校をやめさせられて しまいます

  • who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent?

    酷い話です

  • Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered.

    しかし世界の大部分では

  • Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is.

    今や 女子も

  • Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country?

    男子と同じくらい

  • Well, it's me. It's me.

    学校に通っているんです

  • It's very difficult, this. It's very difficult.

    これは男女格差が 解消された —

  • However, Ola's approach to really measure what we know made headlines

    ということではありません

  • And CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there,

    女性は依然大きな 制限に直面しています

  • Millions answered, and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments

    しかし就学に関しては 同等になっているんです

  • "I bet no member of the media passed the test," he said.

    皆さんは最悪のところを

  • So Ola told me, "Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences.

    基準に答えていて

  • Give it to them and measure what the media know."

    多数派を見落としているんです

  • And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media.

    貧困はどうでしょう ?

  • And then, lately, from the European Union media.

    貧困がほとんど 半分になっているのは

  • You see, the problem is not that people don't read and listen to the media.

    明白な事実です

  • The problem is that the media doesn't know themselves.

    アメリカで正しく答えたのは

  • What shall we do about this, Ola? Do we have any ideas?

    たった5%です

  • Yes, I have an idea, but first, I'm so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps.

    皆さんはどうでしょう?

  • Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually.

    ほぼチンパンジーに 並びましたね

  • Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. That's basically what I will do.

    (笑) (拍手)

  • But first, let's look at why are we so ignorant, and it all starts in this place.

    ほんの少しだけ 負けています

  • It's Hudiksvall. It's a city in northern Sweden.

    先入観があるんです

  • It's a neighborhood where I grew up, and it's a neighborhood with a large problem.

    豊かな国の人たちは

  • Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoods where you grew up as well.

    貧困は決してなくならない と思っています

  • It was not representative. Okay? It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet.

    そうでしょうとも

  • So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle. We have a personal bias

    何が起きているか 知らないんですから

  • We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet

    未来を考えるには

  • And on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem.

    まず現在を知ることです

  • Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews,

    これはギャップマインダー財団で 取り組んでいる

  • because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions,

    「無知解消プロジェクト」 試行フェーズの

  • and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes.

    最初の質問のいくつかです

  • And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date.

    このプロジェクトは去年

  • So that's what we are focusing on. So we have these outdated facts added on top of our personal bias.

    私の上司であり息子でもある オーラ・ロスリングが始めました (笑)

  • What happens next is news, okay?

    彼は共同創立者 兼 理事です

  • An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it's sensational.

    人々の甚だしい無知と 戦うには

  • Unusual events are more interesting, no? And they are exaggerated, and especially things we're afraid of

    もっと系統的に 取り組まねばならない —

  • A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden.

    と彼は考えました

  • So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from.

    試行段階ですでに 多くの人の答えは

  • They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas

    ランダムな回答よりずっと悪いことが 明らかになりました

  • and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition.

    先入観について もっと知らねばなりません

  • It was good in evolution. It helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very, very fast.

    大きな先入観の1つは

  • It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none

    世界の所得分布に 関するものです

  • And we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average

    これは1975年の所得分布で

  • Everybody answered that question, "Yeah, I drive cars better."

    それぞれの所得層に属する 人数を示しています

  • Okay, this was good evolutionarily, but now when it comes to the worldview

    ここは 1日1ドル —

  • It is the exact reason why it's upside down.

    (拍手)

  • The trends that are increasing are instead falling, and the other way around

    ここ 1日1ドルのところに

  • And in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength.

    1つコブがあり

  • It was supposed to be our strength, wasn't it?

    10ドルと100ドルの間に

  • So how do we solve such problems?

    もう1つコブがあります

  • First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it.

    世界は2グループに 分かれていました

  • So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance.

    フタコブラクダの世界です

  • We started the pilot last year, and now we're pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world

    貧しい人々と 豊かな人々がいて

  • And the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development

    その中間は あまりいませんでした

  • such as climate, endangered species, human rights, gender equality, energy, finance.

    それがどう変わったか 見てください

  • All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts

    時を進めていくと

  • So I've started actually contacting some of them, like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF

    世界の人口は増えていき

  • And asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn't know?

    2つのコブが 1つになっていきます

  • Okay, I gather those facts. Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts

    左のコブが右のコブと一緒になり

  • And then we poll the public and see where they score worst.

    フタコブラクダが消えて

  • So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans

    ヒトコブラクダになりました

  • And we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results

    貧困層の割合は 減っていますが

  • Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

    依然として

  • Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, a global knowledge certificate, which you can use

    大変な数の人が 極貧生活をしています

  • If you're a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable.

    ほぼ10億という人が このグループに属していますが

  • Basically meaning, we don't hire people who score like chimpanzees.

    それもなくすことが できるはずです

  • Of course you shouldn't. So maybe 10 years from now

    今の我々の問題は

  • If this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

    頭を切り換え 大多数が何かを理解することです

  • So now we come to the practical tricks. How are you going to succeed?

    それはこの質問に 明確に現れています

  • There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports.

    「はしかなどの 基本的なワクチンを接種する

  • That will never happen, actually.

    「はしかなどの 基本的なワクチンを接種する

  • Not even Hans thinks that's going to happen.

    1歳児の割合は どれくらいか?」

  • People don't have that time. People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts.

    1歳児の割合は どれくらいか?」

  • We need to turn our intuition into strength again. We need to be able to generalize.

    20%か50%か80%か?

  • So now I'm going to show you some tricks where the misconceptions are turned around into rules of thumb.

    アメリカ人とスウェーデン人の答えです

  • Let's start with the first misconception. This is very widespread. Everything is getting worse.

    スウェーデン人の答で

  • You heard it. You thought it yourself. The other way to think is, most things improve.

    正しい答えが どれか分かりますね ?

  • So you're sitting with a question in front of you and you're unsure.

    (笑)

  • You should guess "improve." Okay? Don't go for the worse.

    あの国じゃいったい誰が 世界保健を教えてるんでしょうか?

  • That will help you score better on our tests.

    ああ 私でした

  • That was the first one.

    (笑)

  • There are rich and poor and the gap is increasing. It's a terrible inequality.

    すごく難しいんですって

  • Yeah, it's an unequal world, but when you look at the data, it's one hump.

    (拍手)

  • Okay? If you feel unsure, go for "the most people are in the middle."

    我々が知っていることを測定する というオーラの試みは

  • That's going to help you get the answer right.

    ニュースでも取り上げられ

  • Now, the next preconceived idea is first countries and people need to be very, very rich

    こうした結果が CNNのサイトで紹介され

  • to get the social development like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters.

    そこで何百万という人が 質問に答え

  • No, no, no. That's wrong.

    2千くらいのコメントが 寄せられました

  • Look: that huge hump in the middle already have girls in school.

    その1つがこれ

  • So if you are unsure, go for the "the majority already have this

    「マスメディアの人間は誰も この試験に通らないだろうよ」

  • Like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things.

    それでオーラが言いました 「マスメディアの会議に

  • They're only rules of thumb, so of course they don't apply to everything, but this is how you can generalize.

    招待されてることだし

  • Let's look at the last one. If something, yes, this is a good one, sharks are dangerous.

    マスメディア関係者に これを聞いてみたらいい」

  • Nowell, yes, but they are not so important in the global statistics, that is what I'm saying.

    皆さん 披露します

  • I actually, I'm very afraid of sharks.

    これがアメリカの

  • So as soon as I see a question about things I'm afraid of, which might be earthquakes, other religions

    マスメディア関係の 会議での結果です

  • Maybe I'm afraid of terrorists or sharks, anything that makes me feel, assume you're going to exaggerate the problem.

    こちらは最近あった EUの マスメディア関係の会議での結果です

  • That's a rule of thumb. Of course there are dangerous things that are also great. Sharks kill very, very few.

    (笑)

  • That's how you should think.

    問題は人々が

  • With these four rules of thumb, you could probably answer better than the chimps, because the chimps cannot do this.

    ニュースを見ないこと ではありません

  • They cannot generalize these kinds of rules.

    マスメディアの人間自身が 知らないんですから

  • And hopefully we can turn your world around and we're going to beat the chimps. Okay?

    どうしたものだろうね オーラ?

  • That's a systematic approach.

    何か考えはあるかい?

  • Now the question, is this important?

    (拍手)

  • Yeah, it's important to understand poverty, extreme poverty and how to fight it, and how to bring girls in school

    (オーラ・ロスリング) 考えはありますが その前に一言

  • When we realize that actually it's succeeding, we can understand it.

    チンパンジーに負けた皆さん お気の毒さまでした

  • But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale?

    それが皆さんのせいでは ないことを示して

  • I would say yes, extremely important, for the same reason.

    安心させてあげましょう

  • If you have a fact-based worldview of today

    それから将来 チンパンジーに勝てるよう

  • You might have a chance to understand what's coming next in the future.

    秘訣をお教えします

  • We're going back to these two humps in 1975.

    それが今日 お話しすることです

  • That's when I was born, and I selected the West.

    まず 我々はなぜこんなにも 無知なのかですが —

  • That's the current EU countries and North America.

    それは ここに始まります

  • Let's now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are.

    フーディクスヴァル スウェーデン北部の町で

  • These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation.

    私が育った場所です

  • In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America.

    この界隈には 大きな問題があり

  • But this has changed, okay? So first, let's look at the change up till today, 2014.

    実際まったく同じ問題が

  • Today it's 50/50. The Western domination is over, as of today.

    皆さんの育った 界隈にもあります

  • That's nice. So what's going to happen next? Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved?

    皆さんの育った 界隈にもあります

  • I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website.

    それは典型でない ということです

  • They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita.

    育った環境により 世の中がどんなものかについて

  • So I can use that to go five years into the future, assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.

    すごく偏った考えが 身につくんです

  • I did that, but I went even further.

    これが無知の問題の 第一の要因です

  • I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen.

    個人的な偏見です

  • Let's move into the future. In 2020, it's 57 percent in the rest.

    私たちは住む社会や 出会う人に応じて

  • In 2025, 63 percent. 2030, 68. And in 2035,