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America has dominated global finance...
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...since the end of the second world war...
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...when the current system was built
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Designed to establish the economic foundations of peace...
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...on the bedrock of genuine international cooperation
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But the economic disaster caused by the coronavirus pandemic...
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...could signal a new chapter in financial history...
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...with America's leadership called into question
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Covid-19 has shown that America is failing to...
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...sort out its own affairs at home, let alone provide global leadership
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$484bn for loans, after the first round of funding ran out
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Another huge spike in unemployment claims
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With a vacuum emerging at the top of the financial order...
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...China is vying to compete for greater control
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This is not a case of China becoming Wall Street overnight
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The crisis has provided China with an opportunity to show...
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...what it's capable of doing, which in the long run will tip the balance of power
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In global finance, America is king
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It controls the world's financial plumbing
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And accounts for almost a quarter of the world economy
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The dollar makes up most central-bank reserves...
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...and is the currency of international trade
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80% of global supply chains use dollars...
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...which gives America significant power
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Whoever controls the flows of money at the end of the day...
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...controls a lot of things in the economy...
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...and ends up being the puppet master of a lot of...
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...things that go on around the world
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China hopes to correct this imbalance
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There is a growing call from the international community...
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...for reforming the global-economic-governance system...
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...which is a pressing task for us
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It already has the world's second-largest economy
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Its banks are enormous
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The banking sector has been growing fairly steadily for the past ten years
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While in America, bank assets have remained relatively stable
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And with European banks' assets falling...
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...Chinese banks now have more assets than those in Europe or America
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But most of their business is within China
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Chinese banks account for only 7% of cross-border lending
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So the banks' vast size hasn't translated...
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...into influence within the world's financial system...
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...yet
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Its banks are becoming more active overseas
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They are lending to companies, in particular...
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...Chinese companies that are globalising
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China is also giving its own currency a more prominent role
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In commodities markets, it has convinced...
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...a few companies to use the currency
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Rio Tinto, which is one of the largest iron-ore miners in the world...
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...issued its first contracts in yuan last year
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The covid-19 pandemic could increase China's financial influence
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China is now sharing its experience with the rest of the world...
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...and providing much-needed supplies
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30 tonnes of equipment to Italy, 500,000 surgical masks to Spain
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Following the outbreak in Wuhan...
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...China has positioned itself as a global leader...
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...containing the outbreak...
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...agreeing to deals to suspend repayment some of its loans...
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...and charging ahead with vaccine development
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The covid crisis, at least so far, has cast a negative shadow...
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...on the capacity for leadership of America
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It did not try or even show interest in...
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...marshalling a global response to this crisis
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It's going to disappear one day, it's like a miracle, it will disappear
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This could offer an opportunity for China because...
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...it's tried to fill the vacuum that America has left in terms of global leadership
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China's tough response to the crisis...
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...and the growing size and depth of its financial markets...
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...have helped convince investors it's a safe bet...
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...even as covid sent other markets crashing
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While emerging markets saw the value of bonds plummet earlier this year
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China's government bonds remained stable...
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...which is a good gauge of trust in a country's economy
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So, China has the second-biggest bond market in the world
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Covid provided the first tests that this bond market could resist a crisis...
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...in a way that typically emerging-market bonds don't
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It shows investors trust China as an economy...
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...that they don't think it's going to collapse overnight
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As well as improving its reputation with international investors...
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...China hopes to increase its hold over how money moves around the world
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America has huge influence over the current system, thanks to SWIFT...
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...the world's largest network for transferring money
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It's a messaging system that allows financial institutions to communicate
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It's meant to be geopolitically neutral
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But because a majority of SWIFT transactions are in dollars...
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...and these are routed through New York...
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...America has used the system to choke its adversaries
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Russia feared being excluded after its invasion of Crimea...
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...and some Iranian banks were blocked from using the system in 2018...
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...to enforce US sanctions
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So, SWIFT is based in Belgium
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So, it's supposed to be neutral. However, America has a strong influence over it
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America can also threaten SWIFT with sanctions...
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...if SWIFT does not do what America wants
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This is very upsetting for its allies...
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...which would rather the system stays neutral...
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...and for the benefit of everyone
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For now China can't hope to challenge America's dominance of SWIFT
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Instead, Chinese companies are targeting...
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...a different part of the financial system...
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...the way in which consumers spend their money
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Most consumer payments rely on American giants Visa and Mastercard
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But Chinese tech companies have developed a series of apps...
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...that disrupt this system
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Rather than using bank accounts or credit cards for transactions...
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...consumers load money into “digital wallets”
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Consumers can then do almost anything...
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...from paying parking fines to making investments or ordering taxis...
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...without any of this money flowing through the banks
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Creating a parallel financial ecosystem
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This is potentially very disruptive to the financial system
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It changes the way the money moves around the world
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It empowers a new set of companies...
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...which are so big that even the Chinese government is scared of them
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Last year Chinese customers made mobile payments...
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...worth a total of $49trn
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And the two main Chinese companies offering this tech...
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...Tencent and Ant Financial are enormous, with a billion users each
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Covid-19 may increase their reach
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People are doing more shopping online...
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...trying to stay away from cash, which is seen as a potential contaminant
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And this is all to the benefit of electronic-payment firms
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Ant Financial and Tencent are already expanding overseas
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Ant Financial's app Alipay is accepted in 56 countries and regions
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And other digital-wallet firms are buying into their tech
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Alipay's QR format has already been adopted by six European mobile wallets
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America has reasons to be worried about the Chinese giants
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They are getting bigger in the region because they are investing...
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...their wallets in South-East Asia and beyond
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And in effect it creates a system that is not reliant on...
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...American companies, American standards, American norms
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But China faces a major obstacle
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Much of the world distrusts its intentions
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China denying a cover-up
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The top Chinese officials kept it quiet
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After all, Chinese leaders initially denied and covered up the spread of covid-19
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There's always a doubt about what is the ultimate objective...
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...that China is pursuing in being so collaborative at the present time
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It's not always transparent about the truth...
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...and what happens in its own country
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In a global financial system, you need transparency
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You need to know the facts, what's going on...
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...to make sure the system is in good health
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As China's financial sphere of influence grows...
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...it is unclear whether it will complement America's...
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...by creating more competition, or undermine the existing system
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In the end, what we could see is...
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...the fragmentation of the global financial system in...
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...an America-dominated sphere and a China-dominated sphere
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These two systems don't have to be mutually exclusive
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They could actually collaborate with each other
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If they do, great. If they don't, then it will be harder...
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...to move money around the world
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It will be a costlier, more dangerous financial system
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And in the end, most people will lose out
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China may not become the dominant force in global finance any time soon
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But covid-19 is helping to fast-track its progress
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And as the world recovers from the virus...
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...and economies begin to open up...
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...China will be well placed to make significant gains
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Thanks for watching
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I'm Matthieu Favas, finance correspondent at The Economist
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And if you want to read more about how...
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...the covid crisis is going to change the financial system...
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...please click the link opposite