字幕表 動画を再生する 英語字幕をプリント Corey Hajim: Today, our guest is Dan Schulman, CEO of PayPal. When most of us think of PayPal, we think of buying something online or paying a friend back for a drink using Venmo. But PayPal has also become a major financial services player, often acting as an alternative to a traditional bank. During this pandemic, PayPal has supported small businesses around the world by providing loans, waiving fees and increasing cash back programs. It has also worked with the US government on its Paycheck Protection Program, as well as distributing stimulus checks. It has enabled an outpouring of generosity online as well. The trend towards digital payments, or what we might now want to think of as "contactless payments," has massively accelerated, and it's changing forever how we think about commerce. So I'm really excited to have Dan here with us. Thank you so much, Dan. Dan Schulman: Thanks for having me, Corey. Pleasure to be here with you. CH: Glad to see you. So let's dive right in. Within a few months of this pandemic's arrival, more than 30 million people have filed for unemployment in the United States alone. These are certainly unusual circumstances, but it seems clear we were running very close to the edge, and now so many businesses and their employees are facing huge financial challenges. How worried are you? DS: Well, I think the crisis has exposed three things. Obviously, it's a health crisis for so many people. Second thing is, that health crisis has ricocheted, and the world is now in an economic crisis. And the third crisis that we don't talk so much about but I think is impacting the way that we're going to live our lives going forward is: this is a psychological crisis as well. People are reexamining their place in the world, what's happening in the world, how they're going to live their lives, both in the pandemic and postpandemic. And so I think this is something that each of those phases will need to be dealt with. But you said this, and I completely agree with you: there was an economic crisis happening well before the pandemic exposed this. It's kind of like the water level came down and exposed what was already there. You had, for instance, in the US, 185 million adults in the US struggling to make ends meet at the end of the month. You have over 70 million adults that are really outside of the financial system, spending over 140 billion dollars on high interest rates, unnecessary fees and struggling as well. And so I think what this has really done -- because you can't ignore 20, 25 percent unemployment rates -- it's exposed this crisis and forced a lot of people into, maybe, actions that they might not have taken without this crisis happening. CH: Yeah, I think that's right. There are so many challenges and so many opportunities, and I think you've spoken of this opportunity of digital transactions being helpful to people, and obviously the trend, as you've said, has massively accelerated and pushed us into this world even further. So I'm curious: What does the world look like without cash? Or less cash? What are the advantages and what are the challenges of making that transition? DS: I think some of the trends that are emerging coming out of this pandemic or coming into it and as we look forward is, clearly, this has been a discontinuous change in the trend line as we move from physical to digital. I think we've accelerated many forms of digital capabilities by three to five years. And that can be from digital payments to telemedicine to really changing the face of retail and how we think about retailing, changing the face of entertainment, even changing the way governments think about managing and moving money and really thinking about digital currencies going forward. And so I think there are a tremendous number of changes that will occur during this pandemic and coming out of it. Digital payments is obviously one of the big ones that will happen. I mean, cash has been around for quite some time, thousands of years. I would not be so bold as to predict its full demise. Many people have been wrong doing that. But there is no question right now that you will see an acceleration of the demise of cash. Last year, you had over 18 trillion dollars of cash spent at retail. Eighty-five percent of the world's transactions today are done in cash still. But the really big change right now towards digital payments, and that's both the advent and the acceleration of commerce that's happening, as well as the shift to in-store contactless payments, as you said, and the real impetus for that is health reasons. People do not want to hand over money. They do not want to touch screens. They don't want to pick up a pen and sign at the point of sale. And so there is a demand for contactless payments and digital payments to keep social distancing requirements in place, to protect the health of cashiers, to protect the health of consumers. And I think we are going to see, we are already seeing in our business, a surge in digital payments across the world. CH: It seems like a great opportunity, but how do we make sure that this transition is inclusive? I mean, you've talked about how so many people are underserved by the traditional banking industry. How do we make sure that those people have that opportunity? And it feels like a smartphone becomes an essential item. How do we address that? DS: Yeah. I do think that a mobile is really a key to unlocking this. I've often said that, really, one of the big moon shots for the financial services industry is this idea of not just financial inclusion. Most people define financial inclusion by somebody having access to a bank account, but just having access to a bank account is not nearly enough. I think what we need to aim for is how do we think about financial health? How do we make sure that people have the ability to have some wherewithal to create savings to withstand some kind of financial shock to the system? I do think that mobile phones will be the way that this occurs and will be very inclusive going forward. There are going to be something like six billion smartphones in the world over the next several years. The cost of a smartphone is plummeting. I think in India now you can buy a smartphone for under 25 dollars. So you're going to have ubiquity of smartphones across the world, and, in fact, what's very interesting is, in lower-income populations, there is a greater penetration of smartphones than in higher income because the smartphone is the only device that somebody has. Higher-income individuals may have desktops or iPads, that kind of thing, but lower income can afford one device, and they choose it to be a smartphone because they can get and live their life through that one device. And think about that one device. Really, you have all the power of a bank branch in the palm of your hands. And when you can start to create distribution of services, financial services, through a smartphone, you then are able to manage and move money in ways that we couldn't do traditionally. In the physical world, if you get a check, you need to then go to a cash checking place to cash it. You stand in line for 30 minutes. They then charge you anywhere between two and five percent to just change the format of currency from a check to cash. And then you have cash and you want to pay a bill. You need to stand in line again at a bill pay, and then you have to pay maybe 10 dollars for an individual bill as a fee. If you do that via a smartphone, I believe that not only do you save a tremendous amount of time, because if you're outside the financial system, managing and moving money is practically a part-time job to go and do that, so not only do you save time and return time to individuals, but you can cut the cost of transactions by anywhere between 50 and 75 percent. And remember that $140 billion number that I gave you? And that's just in the US. Imagine if you could cut that in half and return that to the most vulnerable populations that need it most. So I think there's tremendous promise in the use of technology to help provide both inclusion and make sure there aren't digital haves and have-nots, but also to start on this journey towards financial health. CH: Yeah, I think a lot of people don't realize that you don't need a bank account or even a credit card to open a PayPal account, which is super-interesting. I mean, do you see a time where traditional banks don't exist or at least play a much smaller role in the financial services industry? DS: Well, I think the entire financial services industry is evolving right now, and so I think banks will always play a role, or as far into the future as I can see, but it will evolve. I mean, think about basic credit cards. Today, you think about a credit card, and you think about it predominantly as a form factor, something that you pull out of your pocket. Sometimes there's status associated with what you're pulling out of your pocket, depending on the color of that credit card. But really I think those form factors start to go away and become embedded in digital wallets. So credit will always be an important element. You know, most people in the world, it isn't that their cash outlays exceed their cash intake. It's just that they're not evenly distributed. So there are times where your cash outflows exceed your cash intake, and there, you need some form of credit to make up that difference. And so I think forms of credit will always be an important element. But the way that you extend credit will change going forward, the way that you think about scoring people in terms of can they handle credit. You know, traditionally, in more developed countries, you use what's called FICO scores or bureau scores, but those ignore so many of the financial transactions that people who are outside the financial system do, like paying rent or paying their bills on time. And with the data and information and machine learning around that -- and we need to be careful that there aren't biases built into those algorithms -- we can start to do things that could never be done before. I'll just give you one quick example. We're one of the largest providers of working capital to small businesses in the world. We're probably one of the top five in the United States. So we've done over 14, 15 billion dollars of lending of working capital to small businesses. Seventy percent of that goes to the 30 percent of counties where 10 or more banks have closed branches. And where do banks close branches? Banks close branches in neighborhoods where the median income is below the national average, which makes sense because for a branch to be profitable, they need a certain amount of deposits for that branch to actually be profitable. And so, in lower income neighborhoods, branches are starting to close. So why are 70 percent of our loans in those lower income neighborhoods?