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  • in a certain way.

  • The puberty of my son Janni came to its heights when he was 23 years old.

  • When he was between 15 and 17 we barely quarreled.

  • He was attending the international school off The Hague very close by in case Dine and I was working in Rice Faik.

  • I actually prepared myself then for challenge, working for one of the largest energy companies in the world and an easy target for protest.

  • Nevertheless, Yanni started to study chemical engineering in the Black Forest area of Germany.

  • And 1.5 years ago, in October 2018 he visited me in Dusseldorf and you went to a seer to play together.

  • After the play, we discussed the play but very, very quickly went into a rift about his shocking revelation that global warming is inevitable.

  • And I reacted in a typical daddy's way.

  • It's not as bad as it sounds.

  • We always found solutions, and I even challenged him.

  • What are you going to do personally?

  • What are you going to do?

  • And that's the reason I'm here.

  • Being on the stage today is part of my personal journey to embrace global warming and lay out how it can unite us rather than separate us.

  • Every generation has its memories, and these memories shape the generations.

  • You that figured by pictures.

  • When you see the picture, you know exactly what it means.

  • And you know exactly where you were that given moment.

  • 1969.

  • The landing on the moon.

  • I was five years old.

  • My parents had a black and white TV.

  • And actually, if I remember back, it's the first television memory of myself.

  • 1981.

  • I was 17 years old, was one of the largest peace demonstrations in Amsterdam against nuclear armament.

  • The pacifist and neutral ist approach of the Dutch peace move was actually coined Holland itis or the Dutch disease.

  • And it led to signing off historic treaties off nuclear disarmament between the West and the East and the fall of the Berlin Wall.

  • 1989 and all the hopes connected to it off eternal peace.

  • A Japanese political scientist, Mr Fukuyama, coined it or mentioned the one called it.

  • This is the end off history.

  • So what does it teach us?

  • Everything is possible if you really want it.

  • Technology can help and conflicts between people will disappear.

  • So we are the generation piece.

  • Never look at my generation today, they say.

  • Usually the 50 to 60 year olds, they're all in key position in society and culture.

  • They're artists, politicians, journalists, judges, preachers and teachers.

  • I like all the generations before they're challenged by the falling generations.

  • Louise Annoy Bar is the face off the German Fridays for future movement.

  • Let me just read it out.

  • We collectively accused the generation before us off, not protest ng and changing something.

  • I was actually very proud when I received the Nobel Peace price.

  • But along every other European set off citizen off the European Union in 2012 the European Union was awarded the Nobel Peace price for advancement, inhumanity and peace, re consolation and democracy.

  • And for me the most are the biggest achievement is that former enemies kept peace for more than 70 years.

  • During these decades or the past decades, my generation also went to quite substantial environmental challenges.

  • Let me just mention a few, and you still remember them.

  • The dying off forests and the dying off lakes do to acid rain.

  • The industry was deferred to sell, authorized and catalyst were put into cars.

  • The depletion of ozone layers of the ozone layer.

  • A results were banned and replaced by safer ones.

  • Poisonous fumes and cables do to PC be replaced through safer ones over fishing off the North Sea, regulated by quotas.

  • And the war for water in the Middle East, as predicted in the eighties, actually never happened.

  • So what is the first thing that came to mind to like a baby boomer like myself when climate scientists were heard?

  • More prominently have been there.

  • We've heard this before.

  • We've done that before, and we'll fix it.

  • Even 10 years ago, while working for an oil company, I was very busy.

  • Was developing scenarios for the year 2050 In the year 2050 the world population will have grown from 7th 1 pipe, 7.5 billion to 10 assists, 9.5 billion.

  • Over the span of time, it will reach its likely peak by 2070.

  • With 10 billion earthlings.

  • Population giants like China, Brazil, India will go through the most energy intensive face at the moment, mobilization, industrialization.

  • So the forecast is that between now and 2050 energy demand will double.

  • And 10 years ago I was busy trying to solve how to fill the energy kip rather than solving what happens with the energy and the impact of it.

  • I also asked some millennials about which events stand out.

  • Millions are usually categorized as humans who are born between 1918 1996.

  • Let me just check with the room whether you agree to the selection.

  • 9 11 The attack on the World Trade Center in New York, the global financial crisis.

  • It started with the collapse off the Lehman Brothers and then many lost their jobs.

  • Many lost their money.

  • What did it teach?

  • This generation don't trust anything behind a shiny facade.

  • There might be disaster.

  • And I'm giving you a prediction.

  • 10 years old in 2030 when some of you will look back to 2020 Which picture comes to mind?

  • The world sometimes needs special people in special situations, and this time it might be greater.

  • Hopefully that raised some childhood memories with you.

  • Let me take you a little bit into my childhood.

  • I grew up next to a steel plant, my parents to live there nearly 100 yards away from it, and as a young man as a student, I used to work there to study my to finance my studies.

  • It was great pay not a nice working conditions and emission allies.

  • Maybe also not perfect.

  • Then I went to Berlin and sitting class in micro economics.

  • I was introduced to two gentlemen to it.

  • Two Englishmen, actually the 1st 1 Ronald Harry Coz he was born in 1910 and awarded the peace of the Noble Prize for economics in 1991.

  • He used a lot steel plants and fishermen to show his cases.

  • Let me just describe the situation.

  • Both parties use the river, the fishermen to get his catch and the steel plant is cooling water and also to release waste.

  • Nobody owns the river.

  • Therefore, using water comes for free.

  • What happened or what happens?

  • The fishermen will catch as much as he can.

  • You might even over fish and the steel plant will produce farm or steal their necessary because the water doesn't have a cost, Ronald Coase now proposes property rights as the solution on property rights should lead to a negotiated solution where the cost off, off using and polluting is part of the cost equation.

  • So Let's just apply that to this example.

  • Let's assume the fisherman on the river so the fishermen could go to the steel plant.

  • You could say you could give you money and so you can pollute the river to a certain extent.

  • And that money should be far more than the loss in catch.

  • Now we take the other example.

  • The steel plant owns the river, so the fishermen go to the student that can you pollute a little bit less on.

  • I give you money for it, and that money should be lower than what he could get as additional catch.

  • So at the end, we find a social optimum with no intervention off the state.

  • The second Englishman like to introduce you to is Arthur Cecil Pig.

  • He was born in 18 77.

  • He was the 1st 1 to describe external effects externally effects exactly what I described before using a good damaging, a good without paying for it.

  • In his book, The Economics Off Welfare.

  • It was published exactly 100 years ago.

  • In 1920 he proposes a tax and detects up to know usually used to fill up the coffers off the state.

  • His approach was different, said, Let's evaluate the damage which is done to the river, and I apply this as a text to the people who use it.

  • We also use the income to subsidize good behavior.

  • Does that sound familiar?

  • This is the theory behind Theo to text and subsidies for electro mobility.

  • Let's apply this tall a little example.

  • Here the fisherman would text would be text for every fish he catches and the steel plant.

  • For every litre they use, the fisherman would catch little bit less the population of fishes.

  • Congrats.

  • Oh, the steel plant would use produce a little bit less steel and the water stays cleaner.

  • And why I'm telling you that these are two economic theories.

  • Have the impression.

  • Rather than talking about the tours and how we can use these tools and ideas, we're still bickering about whose fault is the mess we're in.

  • So let's go that route a little bit.

  • I give you certain angular whose fault it could be.

  • This is actually see or two emission historically to today any surprises?

  • Actually, the Netherlands come number 19 but doesn't really help.

  • Does it really help to blaming me?

  • The number one position.

  • Does it tell us who's actually having the highest sea or two per capita consumption?

  • Does it tell you?

  • Invest the most to reduce you to a reduction?

  • Does it help to blame the baby boomers and put the millennials or generation?

  • Why into the victim corner?

  • Why, actually, are we using descriptors like baby boomers?

  • Millennials?

  • The reason is our brains need filters to process data.

  • Incoming data.

  • Otherwise it's overwhelming.

  • Paul.

  • How did it told us a great story about our ancestors, And I'm just picturing our ancestors walking the planes, and they need Patton's enemy friend, Sheep Lion.

  • The downside today is thinking in boxes Lisa Prejudices and I'll take dietary preferences as an example because it was also asked in the invitation, What dietary requirements do you have Vegan vegetarian?

  • And then we call them carnivores.

  • The meat eaters usually mutually exclusive choices, and you probably sometimes over here, the bickering between them about my choice is the better one and discounting the other one, it also helps to be in the book sometimes helps to satisfy two very basic social needs.

  • Number one sense of direction.

  • I know exactly what good looks like and I know how to behave in a certain way, a sense of belonging.

  • I do exactly as my my, my Pierce and I'm part of something.

  • And now comes global warming.

  • Global warming is the challenge of all the times it might lead to disruptions that might lead to farewell to very long trained habits.

  • It also has the opportunity to bring us all together because now we have a common denominator.

  • C 02 reduction, more or less in whatever I do, and boxes can become sliding scales, they become a continuous excess.

  • And let me just demonstrate that in the grass.

  • Now you see the preferences of dietary requirements.

  • But a carnivore can stay a carnival even if he meets, or he if he eats less meat.

  • But he moves along the CEO to excess.

  • A carnival remains a carnival if it doesn't even eat beef anymore.

  • Vegan remains a vegan.

  • Even if you buy, It doesn't buy tofu anymore from a far distant country, so everything becomes a continues or a continuum.

  • Let me introduce a second access to that means of transport from bike trains, two planes and our old world box thinking world.

  • We could create new boxes and after apologized to my three Children because I'm using them here.

  • There's my younger son.

  • He's a fly.

  • Agitate Arian.

  • He's a vegetarian, but he still likes to use planes because it's faster.

  • Famous Janni, who I mentioned the beginning already is a car gun.

  • He's a vegan, but he uses the car and my daughter.

  • She's a bike of war, so she eats meat.

  • But she bikes.

  • No, make this even more complex.

  • 1/3 dimension.

  • Then we call this your room.

  • Climate preference.

  • Well, thinking of boxes becomes very, very silly.

  • It's almost impossible to plot 1/4 dimension, but think of youse off electronic gadgets and the power required for this for storing, processing, streaming and then we can't even Maur dimensions to it.

  • So at the end, whatever you do is a little point in an n dimensional space, and it's your your private C 02 footprint.

  • Therefore, with C 02 as a common denominator, we have the opportunity to overcome the differences between generations and various lifestyles, and we can unite behind a common goal reduction of goto.

  • I showed you some tools like the pig you, Tex.

  • It's now the co two texts.

  • Sweden has introduced his long time ago and Germany just very, very recently in last four.

  • In this approach, we also still have one more choice to make.

  • How do we communicate that?

  • How do we get this across and we can become policeman or clergyman?

  • We can focus on trespassing on sinning, pointing fingers, and we can become coaches or doctors encouraging the right behavior, leading by example and also accepting that were far from perfect.

  • And I can also choose to be coached.

  • I have to say very, very great, thanks to Janni.

  • He didn't even know the content off my speech today.

  • And he really made me change my, my my thinking.

  • So thanks really, for that at the end, every gram counts.

  • I live now at the River Rhine, and if I walk along the river, what do I notice?

  • Parts of the steel plant I usedto work and have long stopped.

  • Other steel plants are applying the most stringent regulations and emission controls.

  • Yanni is a vegan.

  • He doesn't even need a fisherman anymore.

  • And the river is left to its own equilibrium.

  • Thank you very much.

in a certain way.

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気候変動はいかにして私たちを人々として団結させることができるか|ハンス・ゲルデス|TEDxHotelschoolTheHague (How climate change can unite us as people | Hans Gerdes | TEDxHotelschoolTheHague)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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