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  • Good morning, John.

  • This is the Ice Cube.

  • You've heard of that?

  • So we're that we got.

  • So it's a little weird that we call them cubes, even when they're not even close to being cube shaped.

  • What?

  • An ice cube reaches the temperature above 32 F.

  • It becomes liquid water.

  • But John, it's around 70 degrees in this room right now, and the Ice Cube is still I.

  • So what's going on?

  • Well, put the ice cube down for a little bit.

  • We'll come back to it now.

  • I would like to introduce you to the scariest graph I have ever seen.

  • It was published in a paper in 2016 actually by a friend of mine.

  • It's a graph of sea level rise, but it is not the graph of sea level rise that we usually see.

  • Those tend to look like that.

  • They show how much scientists expect the sea level to have risen by a certain point in the future, and they invariably show pretty bad news, like a full meter of sea level.

  • Rise by 2100 would cost around $14 trillion a year.

  • For comparison, all of the student loans outstanding in the US right now, about $1.5 trillion.

  • So these grafts are showing you something called global mean sea level or GMs L.

  • That's where the sea level is going to be in 2100 and you can see various scenarios that the I P.

  • C.

  • C has put together in blue.

  • You've got our C P.

  • 2.6.

  • That's like the best case scenario where everyone works really hard together very quickly to make sure that the total increase in temperature of the Earth is no more than two degrees Celsius in red, you've got our C P.

  • 8.5.

  • That's basically the scenario in which we do nothing, and spoiler were closer to that one than we are to our C P 2.6.

  • But the scariest graf I've ever seen bring it back now it's got a surprise for us.

  • GM SL is the tiny, little insignificant blip on the bottom and gray that's global mean sea level, these big things.

  • That's what they're calling S L.

  • R.

  • C or sea level rise commitment.

  • This is not a graph of where the sea level was going to be it's a graph off.

  • What sea level rise we will have, like signed up for Because John, my ice cube, it's still over here being an ice cube.

  • It's been 70 degrees in here the whole time, but still I see level doesn't automatically, is it to wherever it would be for any given global temperature.

  • It takes time for ice to melt.

  • It takes time for heat to move around.

  • It takes like forever except Matt forever.

  • If we follow our worst case scenario to 2100 we will have that one meter sea level rise.

  • But we will have signed up for six meters of sea level rise even today, with the temperature increase that we've already seen, we in the long term have already signed up for more than a meter of sea level rise.

  • Now, admittedly, this is like long term thinking, and no model is perfect.

  • If we paused co two releases right now, it would be hundreds of years before we saw that full sea level rise.

  • But we would see it would even see rise over a meter if we started to decrease the amount of see you two in the atmosphere.

  • There isn't a scenario a long term that doesn't lead to more than a meter of sea level rise with current technology.

  • But, John, we are humans, and we are very good at solving problems.

  • We're just not good at solving problems that we aren't able to recognize.

  • If we wait until 2100 when we're really gonna start feeling the actual, like, seriously sting of climate change, we will have signed up for much, much worse than that.

  • So, John, all this leave you with this.

  • The ice is dripping, but it's still ice.

  • I'll see you on Tuesday, John.

  • Congrats on the launch of Life's Library.

  • You got those 1st 1000 people, and now it is open for folks to sign.

  • I just did it myself.

  • What a wonderful Valley.

  • And second, if you want to hear me ramble a bunch about how I feel like I think a little bit differently about climate change than a lot of people and maybe a little bit more of a new wants to take, I made a big, long video over on Hank's Jam.

  • It has a little bit of optimism in it, which you might need right now.

Good morning, John.


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A2 初級

今まで見た中で一番怖いグラフだわ (This is the scariest graph I've ever seen)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日