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  • Hello there. Hi. I'm Jake and if you know one thing about me it's

  • probably, well, that I love the end of the world.

  • I've made a lot of videos about it on Vsauce 3 like

  • Could You Be The Last Of Us? Could You Survive A Fallout? What If The World Ended?

  • And then one recently about what if everyone were taken over by parasites?

  • So this episode is all about different types of disasters that can occur.

  • And I'm going to give you safe ways to simulate them but just in case you find yourself in a real life one

  • Well there's disasterpreparer.com/websites.

  • And that could help. It's a website full of more websites that show you what you could do in case of an emergency.

  • It's a DONG, something you could do online now guys.

  • On the Habitable Planet you can learn through lessons and their corresponding simulations.

  • I did the Disease Lab which helps you visualize and understand how pandemics like the Spanish

  • Influenza of 1918 occur and affect populations. It infected around 500 million people worldwide

  • and killed an estimated 50 to 100 million. That's anywhere from 3 to 5% of the global

  • population at the time which was thought to be around 1.8 or 1.9 billion. If we go further

  • back in time to The Black Death, well that killed an estimated 450 million people during the 14th century.

  • Of course this simulation can't possibly show the kind of devastation and grief caused

  • by a massive pandemic like one of those but it does give you an idea of just how quickly diseases

  • can spread. Pick through four diseaseswell, made up diseases based on real ones. Like

  • Kold with a K or the Neasles instead of measles. Not only does it imitate the name but it even

  • shares the measles 90% transmission rate and the fact that it's typically contagious

  • 4 days before a rash appears and 4 days after. You can also choose the degree

  • of population mixing which is when migrants of different origins come in contact with

  • one another. If you run the simulation it will automatically go for 100 days. But there's

  • value in going step by step because you can see the spread of illness at work and calculate

  • it yourself to see if it fits what's typical for that disease. For example, each contagious

  • dot has eight neighbors. Divide the number of newly red neighbors by 8

  • to see that it's pretty close to that

  • 90% transmission rate. If you keep going some dots disappear completely and these are the

  • ones that have died.

  • Of course some disasters would occur with or without the presence of humans, like hurricanes.

  • On create-a-cane your job is to set the ideal conditions for its formation. If you wanna

  • be a pro before you even get into it you can read up on them first with this page. There

  • are pretty cool facts like how the term hurricane only refers to the large storms that form

  • over the Atlantic or eastern Pacific. In fact they all have different names depending on

  • where they are from so it could be a typhoon, cyclone, severe tropical cyclone or severe

  • cyclonic storm. Whichever one it is, it still requires the same conditions to form. The first is

  • that there has to be warm ocean water that's at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit and about 165

  • feet below the surface. This contributes to warm moist air forming above the surface.

  • Since warm air rises it leaves the surface and creates an area with fewer air molecules

  • per unit. This lower density causes a low pressure zone which just means there is less

  • force distributed over the area. The surrounding air has a higher pressure and pushes in to

  • the low-pressure zone. This new air warms and rises and the surrounding air

  • swirls in to take its place. These colliding air pressures are what cause those strong

  • winds. And then there are other factors of course such as wind direction and wind strength

  • and distance from the equator at formation. But I don't wanna ruin the experience for

  • you. So you should definitely check this out yourself and explore on your

  • own. If you do need some help, there are question marks that can give you some guidance. Speaking of strong

  • winds you can also

  • Experience the formation of a tornado. Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes form over land and their

  • winds get much faster. On this simulation you are guided through the ingredients for

  • a perfect tornado, the storm formation, and at the end you can watch the funnel form.

  • Many funnel clouds do not actually touch the ground and cannot be defined as tornadoes.

  • It's definitely cool to see because they're not always visible at this stage in real life.

  • And also you probably don't want to get that close to one. A category 5 hurricane,

  • the strongest it can get rarely goes above 195 mph but tornadoes have gotten up to about

  • 300 mph. However, hurricanes can cause more widespread damage due to their size and duration.

  • They are measured by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and Tornadoes by the F-scale. Both categorize

  • the storms based on their wind speed. Since tornadoes are so strong they would probably

  • destroy any measuring device, their wind speed is actually just an estimate based on the

  • amount of damage inflicted.

  • Now disasters like this can obviously affect the population and sometimes it's hard to Imagine

  • The Population of Tomorrow. This website predicts age distribution as well as population size depending

  • on a variety of factors. They will change based on the geographical zone selected. For

  • example, population growth in the United States is negative since it actually has a sub-replacement

  • fertility rate of only 1.89 children born per woman. This is the rate that needs to be sustained

  • for each new generation to be less populous than the subsequent one. But let's change it to

  • Egypt where the average number of children born per woman is 3.16 and the growth is pretty

  • fast. During that Flu pandemic in 1918, average life expectancy in the United

  • States dropped 12 years. So let's say that happened in 2018. Decrease it by 12 and watch

  • how the population slows down. This is probably intuitive since the death rate is slowing

  • while the birth rate has been kept constant. But it's still interesting to watch how

  • that might have looked 100 years ago.

  • Population growth can get complex with all these factors but predictions can be

  • made using complex mathematics. To figure out the rate of change of population you can

  • use something called differential equations. These can also be applied to predict things

  • like chemical reactions and economic trends. But what are differential equations?

  • Well, Brilliant.org has a whole course on them with quizzes and it is awesome. Let's go through one

  • of the questions. Here is an example of a differential equation.

  • A solution is a function y(x) whose derivative is 6xy. We'll see in the next chapter how

  • to find such functions. For now, we can whether a function is a solution by differentiating

  • and seeing whether the equation is satisfied. Which of the following is a solution to this

  • equation? y=e^3x². CORRECT.

  • Brilliant was nice enough to sponsor this episode and their site is incredible

  • It allows you to test your knowledge in subjects like math and science

  • and it really aligns with Vsauce's mission perfectly so if you want

  • to continue expanding your knowledge sign up with the link at the top of the description

  • for 20% off an annual subscription. But, only the first 36 of you will get it so I would recommend going and clicking that link.

  • Alright I'm gonna go make this entire studio disaster proof...uhh...and as always, thanks for watching.

  • uhhhh okay.

Hello there. Hi. I'm Jake and if you know one thing about me it's

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災害シミュレータ (Disaster Simulators)

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    林宜悉 に公開 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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