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The Incumbent Problem refers to the vast, but often overlooked and unfair advantage
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that all new people, cities and jobs have over existing – or, as we put it, incumbent
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– ones. The beautiful person glimpsed briefly in the street as we step off the bus, the
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city visited for a few days of holiday, the job we read about in a few tantalising paragraphs
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of a magazine; these have unwise tendencies to seem immediately and definitively superior
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to our current partner, our long-established home and our committed workplace and can inspire
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us to sudden and (in retrospect sometimes) regrettable divorces, relocations and resignations.
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5641625328_f50d7fbc77_bWhen we spot apparent perfection, we tend to blame our spectacular
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bad luck for the mediocrity of our lives, without realising that we are mistaking an
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asymmetry of knowledge for an asymmetry of quality; we are failing to see not that our
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partner, home and job are especially awful, but that we know them especially well. Incumbents
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are the victims of disproportionate knowledge. They are generally no worse than anyone or
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anything else, but as they are familiar, their every failing has had a chance to be minutely
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charted. The corrective to disproportionate knowledge is experience. We need to mine the
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secret reality of other people and places and so learn that, beneath their charms, they
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will almost invariably be essentially ‘normal’ in nature: that is, no worse yet no better
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than the incumbents we already understand. The solution to the incumbent problem is to
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extrapolate from what we already know and apply it to what we don’t yet. The most
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plausible generalisation we can make about unknown things is that they are likely to
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be closer to what we’ve already experienced than they are to being completely – and
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bountifully – different. We should beware of the injustices we unthinkingly visit upon
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all the incumbent features and relationships of our lives.
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Our Wisdom Display cards explores what it really means to be wise and how we can strive to be more wise in our everyday lives.